Pittsburgh vs. Wake Forest: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
PITTTeam statsWAKE
- Q4 0:07WAKECameron Hite 15 Yd pass from Santino Marucci (Matthew Dennis Kick)17–21
- Q4 1:30PITTBub Means 22 Yd pass from Christian Veilleux (Ben Sauls Kick)17–14
- Q4 3:02WAKEDemond Claiborne 42 Yd Run (Matthew Dennis Kick)10–14
- Q4 13:03PITTBen Sauls 41 Yd Field Goal 10–7
- Q2 1:32WAKEDemond Claiborne 18 Yd Run (Matthew Dennis Kick)7–7
- Q1 8:12PITTKenny Johnson 7 Yd pass from Christian Veilleux (Ben Sauls Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- WAKE lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 14% explosive on a 34% success rate
- PassChristian Veilleux 28/45, 302 YDS, 2 TD
- RushC'Bo Flemister 23 CAR, 105 YDS
- RecBub Means 9 REC, 109 YDS, 1 TD
- PassSantino Marucci 12/21, 151 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- RushDemond Claiborne 14 CAR, 96 YDS, 2 TD
- RecJahmal Banks 2 REC, 59 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTied entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,328 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 0:07WAKE +88%
Santino Marucci pass complete to Cameron Hite for 15 yds for a TD (Matthew Dennis KICK)
- Q4 1:30PITT +72%
Christian Veilleux pass complete to Bub Means for 22 yds for a TD (Ben Sauls KICK)
- Q4 3:02WAKE +56%
Demond Claiborne run for 42 yds for a TD (Matthew Dennis KICK)
- Q4 1:03PITT +27%
PENALTY Pitt UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (McMillon,Donovan) Pitt UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (McMillon,Donovan) 21 yard from Pitt28 to Pitt07. NO PLAY
- Q2 1:32WAKE +23%
Demond Claiborne run for 18 yds for a TD (Matthew Dennis KICK)
- Q4 1:03WAKE +21%
Santino Marucci pass intercepted
FAQ
What was the final score of Pittsburgh vs. Wake Forest?
Pittsburgh 17, Wake Forest 21.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (WAKE) was correct.
| PITT | WAKE | |
|---|---|---|
| 414 | Total yards | 323 |
| 302 | Passing yards | 151 |
| 112 | Rushing yards | 172 |
| 20 | First downs | 18 |
| 9-20 | 3rd down | 4-14 |
| 0-2 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 28/45 | Comp/Att | 12/21 |
| 6.7 | Yards per pass | 7.2 |
| 3.5 | Yards per rush | 4.2 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 13-101 | Penalties | 4-36 |
| 33:26 | Possession | 26:34 |
Costliest call
Q2 3:13 WAKE punt on 4th & 18 at PITT 39. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.44 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:07WAKECameron Hite 15 Yd pass from Santino Marucci (Matthew Dennis Kick)17–21
- Q4 1:30PITTBub Means 22 Yd pass from Christian Veilleux (Ben Sauls Kick)17–14
- Q4 3:02WAKEDemond Claiborne 42 Yd Run (Matthew Dennis Kick)10–14
- Q4 13:03PITTBen Sauls 41 Yd Field Goal 10–7
- Q2 1:32WAKEDemond Claiborne 18 Yd Run (Matthew Dennis Kick)7–7
- Q1 8:12PITTKenny Johnson 7 Yd pass from Christian Veilleux (Ben Sauls Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (WAKE Elo 1497, PITT Elo 1549 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects WAKE -0.3 (52% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2023
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| PITT | WAKE | |
|---|---|---|
| +0.2 (#60) | CORE overall | -9.5 (#98) |
| -7 / -7 | offense / defense | -4 / +5 |
| 1.17 | points / drive | 1.39 |
| 2.09 | allowed / drive | 2.37 |
| 34% | three-and-outs | 29% |
| +3 | pass over expected | -5 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →