Idaho State vs. Utah State: Final Score & Recap

ReplayCommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Idaho State0-1

0028

Utah State0-1

▸0078

Final

Maverik Stadium

	1	2	3	4	T
IDAH	7	7	7	7	28
USU	7	44	14	13	78

IDAHTeam statsUSU

424Total yards591

323Pass211

101Rush380

28First downs23

7-163rd down5-10

3Turnovers0

33:27Possession26:33

Scoring plays

• Q4 0:54USUJaiden Francois 75 Yd Interception Return (Elliott Nimrod Kick)28–78
• Q4 4:25USUCooper Jones 1 Yd Run (Elliott Nimrod PAT failed)28–71
• Q4 9:15IDAHRaiden Hunter 1 Yd Run (Thomas Kopcho Kick)28–65
• Q3 0:00IDAHMichael Shulikov 12 Yd pass from Hunter Hays (Thomas Kopcho Kick)21–65
• Q3 3:58USUMicah Davis 47 Yd pass from Levi Williams (Elliott Nimrod Kick)14–65
• Q3 8:58USUTerrell Vaughn 5 Yd pass from Levi Williams (Elliott Nimrod Kick)14–58
• Q2 0:01USUElliott Nimrod 37 Yd Field Goal 14–51
• Q2 0:16IDAHChristian Fredericksen 15 Yd pass from Hunter Hays (Thomas Kopcho Kick)14–48
• Q2 4:08USURahsul Faison 60 Yd Run (Elliott Nimrod Kick)7–48
• Q2 5:24USUJalen Royals 20 Yd pass from Cooper Legas (Elliott Nimrod Kick)7–41
• Q2 5:44USUIke Larsen 47 Yd Interception Return (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)7–34
• Q2 6:35USUTerrell Vaughn 4 Yd pass from Cooper Legas (William Testa Kick)7–28
• Q2 12:09USUDavon Booth 40 Yd Run (William Testa Kick)7–21
• Q2 14:51USUDavon Booth 8 Yd Run (William Testa Kick)7–14
• Q1 10:59IDAHChristian Fredericksen 9 Yd pass from Jordan Cooke (Thomas Kopcho Kick)7–7
• Q1 14:33USURobert Briggs Jr. 58 Yd Run (William Testa Kick)0–7

How the model called it

Market line

USU −24

Against the number

USU covered

line USU −24

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

USU 100%50%IDAH 100%

Kickoff161 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

USU (top)IDAH (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: USU 100%

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

USU −24

Closing total

61.0

Model line

—

Actual result

IDAH 28 – 78 USU

Leaders

Idaho State

• PassJordan Cooke 20/30, 185 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
• RushSoujah Gasu 6 CAR, 30 YDS
• RecChristian Fredericksen 8 REC, 116 YDS, 2 TD

Utah State

• PassCooper Legas 14/16, 125 YDS, 2 TD
• RushRobert Briggs 9 CAR, 101 YDS, 1 TD
• RecTerrell Vaughn 11 REC, 73 YDS, 2 TD

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

23sper snap · in line with the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

153

Points / snap

0.69

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

USU up 44 entering the 4th quarter. Across 177 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

100%

USU went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WMerrimack vs Virginia University Of Lynchburg46-0WMonmouth vs Hampton61-10WNotre Dame vs Pittsburgh58-7WSouth Dakota State vs Northern Iowa47-3WMiami vs Florida A&M56-9

Fourth downs

13 calls

USU gave up 0.6 points to the model on fourth down.IDAH 7/7 · USU 3/5 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Idaho State vs. Utah State?

Idaho State 28, Utah State 78.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (USU) was correct.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

IDAH

USU

52%

Success rate

59%

-0.15

EPA / pass

0.52

0.30

EPA / rush

0.64

52%

Early-down success

59%

50%

Pass success

53%

56%

Rush success

63%

12%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

16%

26%

Stuffed rush rate

20%

68%

Pass rate

43%

6.8

Avg 3rd-down distance

6.0

IDAH

6.8 yards to go on 3rd down

83 scrimmage snaps

USU

6.0 yards to go on 3rd down

70 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

IDAH		USU
424	Total yards	591
323	Passing yards	211
101	Rushing yards	380
28	First downs	23
7-16	3rd down	5-10
1-2	4th down	2-2
34/53	Comp/Att	22/28
6.1	Yards per pass	7.5
3.4	Yards per rush	9.3
3	Turnovers	0
0-0	Penalties	4-35
33:27	Possession	26:33

Fourth downs

13 calls

IDAH

7/7 with the model

nothing given up

USU

3/5 with the model

−0.6 pts · −0.0% win prob

Costliest call

Q1 6:37 USU punt on 4th & 16 at IDAH 40. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.44 points.

Every call, priced (13)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

IDAH 6/15 scoring drives← own end zone →USU 10/14 scoring drives

USUTD2 pl, 65 yds· own 35Q1

IDAHTD7 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1

USUPUNT10 pl, 32 yds· own 28Q1

IDAHPUNT9 pl, 46 yds· own 8Q1

USUTD8 pl, 80 yds· own 20Q1

IDAHPUNT3 pl, -3 yds· own 25Q2

USUTD3 pl, 67 yds· own 33Q2

IDAHPUNT4 pl, 21 yds· own 25Q2

USUTD11 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q2

IDAHTD3 pl, 20 yds· own 25Q2

IDAHFUM1 pl, 5 yds· own 15Q2

USUTD1 pl, 20 yds· opp 20Q2

IDAHPUNT3 pl, 1 yds· own 25Q2

USUTD2 pl, 60 yds· own 40Q2

IDAHTD10 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q2

USUFG1 pl, 0 yds· opp 20Q2

IDAHEND1 pl, -1 yds· own 25Q2

IDAHPUNT4 pl, 3 yds· own 25Q3

USUTD11 pl, 62 yds· own 38Q3

IDAHPUNT3 pl, 5 yds· own 25Q3

USUPUNT3 pl, -6 yds· own 30Q3

IDAHPUNT3 pl, 0 yds· own 7Q3

USUTD2 pl, 46 yds· opp 46Q3

IDAHTD11 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q3

USUPUNT3 pl, 7 yds· own 35Q4

IDAHTD13 pl, 77 yds· own 23Q4

USUTD11 pl, 63 yds· own 37Q4

IDAHTD8 pl, 40 yds· own 20Q4

USUEND2 pl, 0 yds· opp 31Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 0:54USUJaiden Francois 75 Yd Interception Return (Elliott Nimrod Kick)28–78
• Q4 4:25USUCooper Jones 1 Yd Run (Elliott Nimrod PAT failed)28–71
• Q4 9:15IDAHRaiden Hunter 1 Yd Run (Thomas Kopcho Kick)28–65
• Q3 0:00IDAHMichael Shulikov 12 Yd pass from Hunter Hays (Thomas Kopcho Kick)21–65
• Q3 3:58USUMicah Davis 47 Yd pass from Levi Williams (Elliott Nimrod Kick)14–65
• Q3 8:58USUTerrell Vaughn 5 Yd pass from Levi Williams (Elliott Nimrod Kick)14–58
• Q2 0:01USUElliott Nimrod 37 Yd Field Goal 14–51
• Q2 0:16IDAHChristian Fredericksen 15 Yd pass from Hunter Hays (Thomas Kopcho Kick)14–48
• Q2 4:08USURahsul Faison 60 Yd Run (Elliott Nimrod Kick)7–48
• Q2 5:24USUJalen Royals 20 Yd pass from Cooper Legas (Elliott Nimrod Kick)7–41
• Q2 5:44USUIke Larsen 47 Yd Interception Return (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)7–34
• Q2 6:35USUTerrell Vaughn 4 Yd pass from Cooper Legas (William Testa Kick)7–28
• Q2 12:09USUDavon Booth 40 Yd Run (William Testa Kick)7–21
• Q2 14:51USUDavon Booth 8 Yd Run (William Testa Kick)7–14
• Q1 10:59IDAHChristian Fredericksen 9 Yd pass from Jordan Cooke (Thomas Kopcho Kick)7–7
• Q1 14:33USURobert Briggs Jr. 58 Yd Run (William Testa Kick)0–7

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →