Georgia State vs. Charlotte: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
GASTTeam statsCLT
- Q4 12:57GASTRobert Lewis 38 Yd pass from Darren Grainger (Liam Rickman Kick)41–25
- Q3 1:30CLTHenry Rutledge 46 Yd Punt Return (Kyle Cunanan Kick)34–25
- Q3 2:21CLTJalon Jones 58 Yd Run (Jalon Jones Pass to Colin Weber for Two-Point Conversion)34–18
- Q3 3:54GASTMarcus Carroll 1 Yd Run (Liam Rickman Kick)34–10
- Q3 10:23GASTTailique Williams 78 Yd pass from Darren Grainger (Liam Rickman Kick)27–10
- Q2 0:00GASTLiam Rickman 46 Yd Field Goal 20–10
- Q2 1:00CLTJack Hestera 5 Yd pass from Trexler Ivey (Kyle Cunanan Kick)17–10
- Q2 3:11CLTKyle Cunanan 30 Yd Field Goal 17–3
- Q2 13:43GASTRobert Lewis 97 Yd pass from Darren Grainger (Liam Rickman Kick)17–0
- Q2 14:56GASTLiam Rickman 26 Yd Field Goal 10–0
- Q1 8:44GASTDarren Grainger 8 Yd Run (Liam Rickman Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- CLT played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and GAST did not face the same ones. 3rd & 9.3 vs 3rd & 6.5
- CLT lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 16% explosive on a 34% success rate
- PassDarren Grainger 27/33, 466 YDS, 3 TD
- RushMarcus Carroll 20 CAR, 67 YDS, 1 TD
- RecRobert Lewis 6 REC, 220 YDS, 2 TD
- PassTrexler Ivey 20/28, 257 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushJalon Jones 6 CAR, 80 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJack Hestera 7 REC, 109 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsGAST up 9 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,696 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 8:44GAST +13%
Darren Grainger run for 8 yds for a TD (Liam Rickman KICK)
- Q2 1:00CLT +11%
Trexler Ivey pass complete to Jack Hestera for 5 yds for a TD (Kyle Cunanan KICK)
- Q2 13:43GAST +8%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Robert Lewis for 97 yds for a TD (Liam Rickman KICK)
- Q3 10:23GAST +6%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Tailique Williams for 78 yds for a TD (Liam Rickman KICK)
- Q4 12:57GAST +5%
Robert Lewis 38 Yd pass from Darren Grainger (Liam Rickman Kick)
FAQ
What was the final score of Georgia State vs. Charlotte?
Georgia State 41, Charlotte 25.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (GAST) was correct.
| GAST | CLT | |
|---|---|---|
| 568 | Total yards | 356 |
| 466 | Passing yards | 268 |
| 102 | Rushing yards | 88 |
| 23 | First downs | 18 |
| 9-15 | 3rd down | 3-14 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 3-6 |
| 27/33 | Comp/Att | 23/35 |
| 14.1 | Yards per pass | 7.7 |
| 2.6 | Yards per rush | 3.0 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 11-80 | Penalties | 7-65 |
| 31:32 | Possession | 28:28 |
Costliest call
Q2 1:54 GAST punt on 4th & 1 at GAST 26. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.88 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 12:57GASTRobert Lewis 38 Yd pass from Darren Grainger (Liam Rickman Kick)41–25
- Q3 1:30CLTHenry Rutledge 46 Yd Punt Return (Kyle Cunanan Kick)34–25
- Q3 2:21CLTJalon Jones 58 Yd Run (Jalon Jones Pass to Colin Weber for Two-Point Conversion)34–18
- Q3 3:54GASTMarcus Carroll 1 Yd Run (Liam Rickman Kick)34–10
- Q3 10:23GASTTailique Williams 78 Yd pass from Darren Grainger (Liam Rickman Kick)27–10
- Q2 0:00GASTLiam Rickman 46 Yd Field Goal 20–10
- Q2 1:00CLTJack Hestera 5 Yd pass from Trexler Ivey (Kyle Cunanan Kick)17–10
- Q2 3:11CLTKyle Cunanan 30 Yd Field Goal 17–3
- Q2 13:43GASTRobert Lewis 97 Yd pass from Darren Grainger (Liam Rickman Kick)17–0
- Q2 14:56GASTLiam Rickman 26 Yd Field Goal 10–0
- Q1 8:44GASTDarren Grainger 8 Yd Run (Liam Rickman Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (CLT Elo 1214, GAST Elo 1517 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects CLT +9.7 (27% to win) — 3.2 points clear of GAST's market line of +6.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2023
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| GAST | CLT | |
|---|---|---|
| -2.0 (#72) | CORE overall | -20.4 (#126) |
| +0 / +2 | offense / defense | -17 / +3 |
| 2.10 | points / drive | 1.37 |
| 2.42 | allowed / drive | 2.59 |
| 27% | three-and-outs | 30% |
| -2 | pass over expected | -8 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →