Florida Atlantic vs. Charlotte: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
FAUTeam statsCLT
- Q4 2:12FAULarry McCammon 4 Yd Run (Carter Davis Kick)38–16
- Q3 1:38FAUCarter Davis 38 Yd Field Goal 31–16
- Q3 6:21CLTKyle Cunanan 44 Yd Field Goal 28–16
- Q3 10:36CLTJake Clemons 10 Yd pass from Trexler Ivey (Kyle Cunanan Kick)28–13
- Q3 13:46FAUMichael Johnson Jr. 19 Yd Run (Carter Davis Kick)28–6
- Q2 1:03FAULaJohntay Wester 26 Yd pass from Daniel Richardson (Carter Davis Kick)21–6
- Q2 8:20CLTKyle Cunanan 44 Yd Field Goal 14–6
- Q2 13:15FAULaJohntay Wester 21 Yd pass from Daniel Richardson (Carter Davis Kick)14–3
- Q1 6:53FAUZeke Moore 3 Yd pass from Daniel Richardson (Carter Davis Kick)7–3
- Q1 8:46CLTKyle Cunanan 36 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- CLT played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and FAU did not face the same ones. 3rd & 7.6 vs 3rd & 4.4
- PassDaniel Richardson 19/26, 218 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- RushLarry McCammon III 15 CAR, 67 YDS, 1 TD
- RecLaJohntay Wester 10 REC, 149 YDS, 2 TD
- PassTrexler Ivey 8/15, 68 YDS, 1 TD
- RushTerron Kellman 20 CAR, 83 YDS
- RecJake Clemons 2 REC, 28 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsFAU up 15 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,203 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 6:53FAU +17%
Zeke Moore 3 Yd pass from Daniel Richardson (Carter Davis Kick)
- Q2 13:15FAU +13%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to LaJohntay Wester for 21 yds for a TD (Carter Davis KICK)
- Q2 1:03FAU +10%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to LaJohntay Wester for 26 yds for a TD (Carter Davis KICK)
- Q1 8:46CLT +9%
Kyle Cunanan 36 yd FG GOOD
- Q2 8:20CLT +5%
Kyle Cunanan 44 yd FG GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of Florida Atlantic vs. Charlotte?
Florida Atlantic 38, Charlotte 16.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (FAU) was correct.
| FAU | CLT | |
|---|---|---|
| 349 | Total yards | 325 |
| 218 | Passing yards | 164 |
| 131 | Rushing yards | 161 |
| 21 | First downs | 22 |
| 3-8 | 3rd down | 4-19 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 6-8 |
| 19/27 | Comp/Att | 21/35 |
| 8.1 | Yards per pass | 4.7 |
| 5.0 | Yards per rush | 3.4 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 5-35 | Penalties | 12-106 |
| 21:31 | Possession | 38:29 |
Costliest call
Q3 9:34 FAU punt on 4th & 1 at FAU 12. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.10 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 2:12FAULarry McCammon 4 Yd Run (Carter Davis Kick)38–16
- Q3 1:38FAUCarter Davis 38 Yd Field Goal 31–16
- Q3 6:21CLTKyle Cunanan 44 Yd Field Goal 28–16
- Q3 10:36CLTJake Clemons 10 Yd pass from Trexler Ivey (Kyle Cunanan Kick)28–13
- Q3 13:46FAUMichael Johnson Jr. 19 Yd Run (Carter Davis Kick)28–6
- Q2 1:03FAULaJohntay Wester 26 Yd pass from Daniel Richardson (Carter Davis Kick)21–6
- Q2 8:20CLTKyle Cunanan 44 Yd Field Goal 14–6
- Q2 13:15FAULaJohntay Wester 21 Yd pass from Daniel Richardson (Carter Davis Kick)14–3
- Q1 6:53FAUZeke Moore 3 Yd pass from Daniel Richardson (Carter Davis Kick)7–3
- Q1 8:46CLTKyle Cunanan 36 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (CLT Elo 1193, FAU Elo 1416 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects CLT +6.5 (34% to win) — 3.0 points clear of FAU's market line of +3.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2023
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesFlorida Atlantic leads 7–3 · 30% have been one-possession games
| FAU | CLT | |
|---|---|---|
| -21.6 (#128) | CORE overall | -20.4 (#126) |
| -14 / +8 | offense / defense | -17 / +3 |
| 1.65 | points / drive | 1.37 |
| 2.02 | allowed / drive | 2.59 |
| 24% | three-and-outs | 30% |
| +6 | pass over expected | -8 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →