Drake vs. South Dakota State: Final Score & Recap

ReplayCommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Drake0-2

▸0070

South Dakota State2-0

07

Final

Target FieldNeutral site

	1	2	3	4	T
DRAK	14	21	21	14	70
SOUT	7	0	0	0	7

DRAKTeam statsSOUT

267Total yards618

220Pass259

47Rush359

10First downs28

3-163rd down6-8

0Turnovers1

32:11Possession27:49

Scoring plays

• Q4 8:18SOUTAngel Johnson 66 Yd Run (Hunter Dustman Kick)70–7
• Q4 13:18SOUTChase Mason 69 Yd Run (Hunter Dustman Kick)63–7
• Q3 4:47SOUTAngel Johnson 21 Yd Run (Hunter Dustman Kick)56–7
• Q3 8:34SOUTJaxon Janke 1 Yd pass from Mark Gronowski (Hunter Dustman Kick)49–7
• Q3 12:51SOUTMark Gronowski 5 Yd Run (Hunter Dustman Kick)42–7
• Q2 2:08SOUTGriffin Wilde 18 Yd pass from Mark Gronowski (Hunter Dustman Kick)35–7
• Q2 5:13SOUTAmar Johnson 1 Yd Run (Hunter Dustman Kick)28–7
• Q2 10:28SOUTZach Heins 13 Yd pass from Mark Gronowski (Hunter Dustman Kick)21–7
• Q1 4:12SOUTKevin Brenner 3 Yd pass from Mark Gronowski (Hunter Dustman Kick)14–7
• Q1 10:37SOUTIsaiah Davis 23 Yd pass from Mark Gronowski (Hunter Dustman Kick)7–7
• Q1 12:43DRAKColin Howard 35 Yd pass from Luke Bailey (Shane Dunning Kick)0–7

What the numbers say

• DRAK played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and SOUT did not face the same ones. 3rd & 9.8 vs 3rd & 6.2

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

SOUT 100%50%DRAK 100%

Kickoff145 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

SOUT (top)DRAK (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: SOUT 100%

Leaders

Drake

• PassLuke Bailey 16/29, 201 YDS, 1 TD
• RushLuke Bailey 3 CAR, 25 YDS
• RecColin Howard 3 REC, 103 YDS, 1 TD

South Dakota State

• PassMark Gronowski 18/25, 226 YDS, 5 TD, 1 INT
• RushAngel Johnson 4 CAR, 90 YDS, 2 TD
• RecJaxon Janke 7 REC, 85 YDS, 1 TD

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

28.3sper snap · slower the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

127

Points / snap

0.61

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

DRAK up 49 entering the 4th quarter. Across 70 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

100%

DRAK went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WPenn State vs Delaware63-7WCentral Arkansas vs Texas College70-2WPenn State vs Massachusetts63-0WSouthern Illinois vs Western Illinois63-0WIdaho vs Idaho State63-21

Fourth downs

14 calls

DRAK gave up 12.6 points to the model on fourth down.DRAK 0/12 · SOUT 0/1 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Drake vs. South Dakota State?

Drake 7, South Dakota State 70.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (SOUT) was correct.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

DRAK

SOUT

19%

Success rate

67%

0.10

EPA / pass

1.40

-0.43

EPA / rush

1.00

17%

Early-down success

67%

22%

Pass success

61%

15%

Rush success

72%

8%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

24%

41%

Stuffed rush rate

6%

58%

Pass rate

49%

9.8

Avg 3rd-down distance

6.2

DRAK

9.8 yards to go on 3rd down

64 scrimmage snaps

SOUT

6.2 yards to go on 3rd down

63 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

DRAK		SOUT
267	Total yards	618
220	Passing yards	259
47	Rushing yards	359
10	First downs	28
3-16	3rd down	6-8
1-1	4th down	0-0
20/34	Comp/Att	21/30
6.5	Yards per pass	8.6
1.7	Yards per rush	10.9
0	Turnovers	1
6-36	Penalties	4-55
32:11	Possession	27:49

Fourth downs

14 calls

DRAK

0/12 with the model

−12.6 pts · −0.0% win prob

SOUT

0/1 with the model

−2.2 pts · −0.0% win prob

Costliest call

Q2 8:48 DRAK punt on 4th & 1 at SOUT 34. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 2.40 points.

Every call, priced (14)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

DRAK 1/14 scoring drives← own end zone →SOUT 10/13 scoring drives

DRAKTD3 pl, 83 yds· opp 17Q1

SOUTTD4 pl, 75 yds· opp 25Q1

DRAKPUNT6 pl, 19 yds· opp 25Q1

SOUTTD7 pl, 36 yds· own 36Q1

DRAKPUNT3 pl, 8 yds· opp 25Q1

SOUTPUNT3 pl, 7 yds· opp 18Q1

DRAKPUNT3 pl, 5 yds· opp 39Q1

SOUTTD7 pl, 64 yds· opp 36Q2

DRAKPUNT3 pl, 9 yds· opp 25Q2

SOUTTD7 pl, 18 yds· own 18Q2

DRAKPUNT5 pl, 20 yds· opp 25Q2

SOUTTD4 pl, 69 yds· opp 31Q2

DRAKPUNT5 pl, 20 yds· opp 21Q2

SOUTINT5 pl, 25 yds· opp 25Q2

DRAKEND1 pl, -1 yds· opp 38Q2

SOUTTD4 pl, 45 yds· own 45Q3

DRAKPUNT3 pl, 1 yds· opp 25Q3

SOUTTD8 pl, 56 yds· opp 44Q3

DRAKPUNT3 pl, 1 yds· opp 20Q3

SOUTTD5 pl, 45 yds· own 45Q3

DRAKMISS14 pl, 44 yds· opp 25Q3

SOUTTD1 pl, 69 yds· opp 31Q4

DRAKPUNT5 pl, 3 yds· opp 35Q4

SOUTTD3 pl, 78 yds· opp 22Q4

DRAKPUNT3 pl, 7 yds· opp 25Q4

SOUTPUNT5 pl, 6 yds· opp 30Q4

DRAKEND5 pl, 12 yds· opp 24Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 8:18SOUTAngel Johnson 66 Yd Run (Hunter Dustman Kick)70–7
• Q4 13:18SOUTChase Mason 69 Yd Run (Hunter Dustman Kick)63–7
• Q3 4:47SOUTAngel Johnson 21 Yd Run (Hunter Dustman Kick)56–7
• Q3 8:34SOUTJaxon Janke 1 Yd pass from Mark Gronowski (Hunter Dustman Kick)49–7
• Q3 12:51SOUTMark Gronowski 5 Yd Run (Hunter Dustman Kick)42–7
• Q2 2:08SOUTGriffin Wilde 18 Yd pass from Mark Gronowski (Hunter Dustman Kick)35–7
• Q2 5:13SOUTAmar Johnson 1 Yd Run (Hunter Dustman Kick)28–7
• Q2 10:28SOUTZach Heins 13 Yd pass from Mark Gronowski (Hunter Dustman Kick)21–7
• Q1 4:12SOUTKevin Brenner 3 Yd pass from Mark Gronowski (Hunter Dustman Kick)14–7
• Q1 10:37SOUTIsaiah Davis 23 Yd pass from Mark Gronowski (Hunter Dustman Kick)7–7
• Q1 12:43DRAKColin Howard 35 Yd pass from Luke Bailey (Shane Dunning Kick)0–7

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →