Austin Peay vs. Southern Illinois: Final Score & Recap

ReplayCommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Austin Peay

0023

Southern Illinois

▸0049

Final

Saluki Stadium

	1	2	3	4	T
AUST	0	0	3	20	23
SOUT	7	21	14	7	49

AUSTTeam statsSOUT

253Total yards432

214Pass263

39Rush169

18First downs23

3-123rd down5-12

3Turnovers1

22:20Possession37:40

Scoring plays

• Q4 0:52AUSTKenny Odom 44 Yd pass from Mike DiLiello (Maddux Trujillo Kick)23–49
• Q4 1:56SOUTKayleb Wagner 3 Yd Run (Jake Baumgarte Kick)16–49
• Q4 6:39AUSTCJ Evans Jr. 6 Yd Run (Maddux Trujillo Kick)16–42
• Q4 10:40AUSTKam Thomas 41 Yd pass from Mike DiLiello (Maddux Trujillo PAT failed)9–42
• Q3 0:00SOUTN. Baker pass to I. Hartrup for 31 yds for a TD3–42
• Q3 0:00SOUTIzaiah Hartrup 31 Yd pass from Nic Baker (Jake Baumgarte Kick)3–42
• Q3 1:45AUSTMaddux Trujillo 29 Yd Field Goal 3–35
• Q3 7:50SOUTJaelin Benefield 54 Yd pass from Nic Baker (Jake Baumgarte Kick)0–35
• Q2 4:42SOUTDune Smith 26 Yd Interception Return (Jake Baumgarte Kick)0–28
• Q2 5:35SOUTJustin Strong 1 Yd Run (Jake Baumgarte Kick)0–21
• Q2 14:57SOUTRo Elliott 1 Yd Run (Jake Baumgarte Kick)0–14
• Q1 6:57SOUTJustin Strong 5 Yd pass from Nic Baker (Jake Baumgarte Kick)0–7

How the model called it

Market line

SOUT −7.5

Against the number

SOUT covered

line SOUT −7.5

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

SOUT 100%50%AUST 100%

Kickoff161 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

SOUT (top)AUST (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: SOUT 100%

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

SOUT −7.5

Closing total

55.0

Model line

—

Actual result

AUST 23 – 49 SOUT

Leaders

Austin Peay

• PassMike DiLiello 20/34, 214 YDS, 2 TD, 2 INT
• RushC.J. Evans 8 CAR, 30 YDS, 1 TD
• RecKam Thomas 5 REC, 72 YDS, 1 TD

Southern Illinois

• PassNic Baker 16/23, 219 YDS, 3 TD
• RushRo Elliott 8 CAR, 39 YDS, 1 TD
• RecIzaiah Hartrup 5 REC, 80 YDS, 1 TD

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

24.8sper snap · in line with the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

145

Points / snap

0.50

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

SOUT up 39 entering the 4th quarter. Across 217 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

100%

SOUT went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WJacksonville State vs East Tennessee State49-3WOhio State vs Western Kentucky63-10WJacksonville State vs Louisiana Tech56-17WOregon vs Arizona State49-13WNorthern Illinois vs Western Illinois54-15

Fourth downs

17 calls

AUST gave up 1.2 points to the model on fourth down.AUST 7/10 · SOUT 7/7 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Austin Peay vs. Southern Illinois?

Austin Peay 23, Southern Illinois 49.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (SOUT) was correct.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

AUST

SOUT

33%

Success rate

49%

-0.36

EPA / pass

0.38

-0.18

EPA / rush

0.12

31%

Early-down success

46%

35%

Pass success

54%

28%

Rush success

44%

12%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

10%

33%

Stuffed rush rate

18%

71%

Pass rate

46%

7.6

Avg 3rd-down distance

7.7

AUST

7.6 yards to go on 3rd down

61 scrimmage snaps

SOUT

7.7 yards to go on 3rd down

84 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

AUST		SOUT
253	Total yards	432
214	Passing yards	263
39	Rushing yards	169
18	First downs	23
3-12	3rd down	5-12
1-1	4th down	3-3
20/34	Comp/Att	20/30
6.3	Yards per pass	8.8
1.7	Yards per rush	3.8
3	Turnovers	1
6-60	Penalties	12-130
22:20	Possession	37:40

Fourth downs

17 calls

AUST

7/10 with the model

−1.2 pts · −0.0% win prob

SOUT

7/7 with the model

nothing given up

Costliest call

Q2 1:38 AUST punt on 4th & 15 at SOUT 40. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.44 points.

Every call, priced (17)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

AUST 2/13 scoring drives← own end zone →SOUT 5/13 scoring drives

AUSTPUNT3 pl, 6 yds· own 16Q1

SOUTTD13 pl, 61 yds· own 39Q1

AUSTPUNT3 pl, 0 yds· own 25Q1

SOUTTD14 pl, 65 yds· own 35Q1

AUSTPUNT3 pl, 8 yds· own 14Q2

SOUTMISS8 pl, 43 yds· own 40Q2

AUSTFUM3 pl, 1 yds· own 20Q2

SOUTTD3 pl, 21 yds· opp 21Q2

AUSTTD2 pl, 0 yds· own 20Q2

AUSTPUNT6 pl, 40 yds· own 15Q2

SOUTEND2 pl, 5 yds· own 5Q2

SOUTPUNT5 pl, 10 yds· own 15Q3

AUSTPUNT4 pl, 4 yds· own 30Q3

SOUTTD6 pl, 73 yds· own 27Q3

AUSTINT2 pl, 15 yds· own 16Q3

SOUTFUM1 pl, 13 yds· opp 39Q3

AUSTFG14 pl, 63 yds· own 26Q3

SOUTTD5 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q3

AUSTPUNT3 pl, 3 yds· own 25Q4

SOUTPUNT5 pl, 5 yds· own 30Q4

AUSTUncateg1 pl, 0 yds· own 35Q4

SOUTPUNT3 pl, 6 yds· own 25Q4

AUSTTD7 pl, 63 yds· own 37Q4

SOUTTD8 pl, 46 yds· opp 46Q4

AUSTTD4 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q4

SOUTEND2 pl, 9 yds· opp 35Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 0:52AUSTKenny Odom 44 Yd pass from Mike DiLiello (Maddux Trujillo Kick)23–49
• Q4 1:56SOUTKayleb Wagner 3 Yd Run (Jake Baumgarte Kick)16–49
• Q4 6:39AUSTCJ Evans Jr. 6 Yd Run (Maddux Trujillo Kick)16–42
• Q4 10:40AUSTKam Thomas 41 Yd pass from Mike DiLiello (Maddux Trujillo PAT failed)9–42
• Q3 0:00SOUTN. Baker pass to I. Hartrup for 31 yds for a TD3–42
• Q3 0:00SOUTIzaiah Hartrup 31 Yd pass from Nic Baker (Jake Baumgarte Kick)3–42
• Q3 1:45AUSTMaddux Trujillo 29 Yd Field Goal 3–35
• Q3 7:50SOUTJaelin Benefield 54 Yd pass from Nic Baker (Jake Baumgarte Kick)0–35
• Q2 4:42SOUTDune Smith 26 Yd Interception Return (Jake Baumgarte Kick)0–28
• Q2 5:35SOUTJustin Strong 1 Yd Run (Jake Baumgarte Kick)0–21
• Q2 14:57SOUTRo Elliott 1 Yd Run (Jake Baumgarte Kick)0–14
• Q1 6:57SOUTJustin Strong 5 Yd pass from Nic Baker (Jake Baumgarte Kick)0–7

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →