Georgia State vs. Southern Miss: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
GASTTeam statsUSM
- Q4 12:16GASTJamari Thrash 30 Yd pass from Darren Grainger (Michael Hayes Kick)42–14
- Q3 2:25GASTMarcus Carroll 1 Yd Run (Michael Hayes Kick)35–14
- Q3 4:17USMFrank Gore Jr. 43 Yd Run (Briggs Bourgeois Kick)28–14
- Q3 6:44USMCole Cavallo 7 Yd pass from Trey Lowe (Briggs Bourgeois Kick)28–7
- Q2 1:33GASTMarcus Carroll 18 Yd Run (Michael Hayes Kick)28–0
- Q2 13:27GASTMarcus Carroll 6 Yd Run (Michael Hayes Kick)21–0
- Q1 2:01GASTTucker Gregg 10 Yd Run (Michael Hayes Kick)14–0
- Q1 7:01GASTJamari Thrash 6 Yd pass from Darren Grainger (Michael Hayes Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- USM played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and GAST did not face the same ones. 3rd & 10.8 vs 3rd & 7.9
- USM lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 15% explosive on a 28% success rate
- PassDarren Grainger 15/23, 133 YDS, 2 TD
- RushMarcus Carroll 24 CAR, 163 YDS, 3 TD
- RecJamari Thrash 4 REC, 60 YDS, 2 TD
- PassTrey Lowe 6/14, 84 YDS, 1 TD
- RushFrank Gore Jr. 11 CAR, 87 YDS, 1 TD
- RecTy Mims 4 REC, 68 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsGAST up 21 entering the 4th quarter. Across 671 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 7:01GAST +17%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Jamari Thrash for 6 yds for a TD, (Michael Hayes KICK)
- Q1 2:01GAST +13%
Tucker Gregg run for 10 yds for a TD, (Michael Hayes KICK)
- Q2 13:27GAST +8%
Marcus Carroll run for 6 yds for a TD, (Michael Hayes KICK)
- Q3 4:17USM +5%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 43 yds for a TD, (Briggs Bourgeois KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Georgia State vs. Southern Miss?
Georgia State 42, Southern Miss 14.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (GAST) was correct.
| GAST | USM | |
|---|---|---|
| 521 | Total yards | 202 |
| 133 | Passing yards | 169 |
| 388 | Rushing yards | 33 |
| 31 | First downs | 16 |
| 6-14 | 3rd down | 2-14 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 2-2 |
| 15/23 | Comp/Att | 13/32 |
| 5.8 | Yards per pass | 5.3 |
| 6.6 | Yards per rush | 1.2 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 9-96 | Penalties | 6-68 |
| 36:42 | Possession | 23:18 |
Costliest call
Q3 9:04 GAST punt on 4th & 5 at USM 45. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.50 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 12:16GASTJamari Thrash 30 Yd pass from Darren Grainger (Michael Hayes Kick)42–14
- Q3 2:25GASTMarcus Carroll 1 Yd Run (Michael Hayes Kick)35–14
- Q3 4:17USMFrank Gore Jr. 43 Yd Run (Briggs Bourgeois Kick)28–14
- Q3 6:44USMCole Cavallo 7 Yd pass from Trey Lowe (Briggs Bourgeois Kick)28–7
- Q2 1:33GASTMarcus Carroll 18 Yd Run (Michael Hayes Kick)28–0
- Q2 13:27GASTMarcus Carroll 6 Yd Run (Michael Hayes Kick)21–0
- Q1 2:01GASTTucker Gregg 10 Yd Run (Michael Hayes Kick)14–0
- Q1 7:01GASTJamari Thrash 6 Yd pass from Darren Grainger (Michael Hayes Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (USM Elo 1334, GAST Elo 1460 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects USM +2.6 (44% to win) — 4.6 points clear of GAST's market line of -2. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2022
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#25 of 108 in 2022 by biggest miss · #103 of 132 in 2022 by longest odds.
The 2022 upset archive →| GAST | USM | |
|---|---|---|
| +0.0 (#68) | CORE overall | -4.1 (#79) |
| -2 / -2 | offense / defense | -9 / -5 |
| 2.10 | points / drive | 1.73 |
| 2.23 | allowed / drive | 1.85 |
| 32% | three-and-outs | 31% |
| -13 | pass over expected | -4 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →