Washington State vs. California: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
WSUTeam statsCAL
- Q3 8:47WSUDe'Zhaun Stribling 8 Yd pass from Jayden de Laura (Dean Janikowski Kick)21–6
- Q1 1:46WSUCalvin Jackson Jr. 5 Yd pass from Jayden de Laura (Dean Janikowski Kick)14–6
- Q1 7:44CALChristopher Brooks 11 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)7–6
- Q1 11:21WSUCalvin Jackson Jr. 22 Yd pass from Jayden de Laura (Dean Janikowski Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassJayden de Laura 25/41, 213 YDS, 3 TD, 2 INT
- RushDeon McIntosh 12 CAR, 53 YDS
- RecCalvin Jackson 6 REC, 53 YDS, 2 TD
- PassChase Garbers 14/30, 152 YDS, 1 INT
- RushChris Street 8 CAR, 51 YDS
- RecKekoa Crawford 3 REC, 67 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsWSU up 15 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,206 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 11:21WSU +18%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Jr. Calvin Jackson for 22 yds for a TD, (Dean Janikowski KICK)
- Q1 7:44CAL +16%
Christopher Brooks run for 11 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed)
- Q1 1:46WSU +11%
Jr. Calvin Jackson 5 Yd pass from Jayden de Laura (Dean Janikowski Kick)
- Q3 8:47WSU +10%
De'Zhaun Stribling 8 Yd pass from Jayden de Laura (Dean Janikowski Kick)
- Q1 1:46WSU +9%
Andrew Boyle 15 yd FG MISSED
- Q1 0:10WSU +7%
Jamieson Sheahan punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Travell Harris at the WshSt 42
FAQ
What was the final score of Washington State vs. California?
Washington State 21, California 6.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked CAL, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| WSU | CAL | |
|---|---|---|
| 326 | Total yards | 269 |
| 213 | Passing yards | 152 |
| 107 | Rushing yards | 117 |
| 22 | First downs | 14 |
| 7-15 | 3rd down | 3-15 |
| 1-2 | 4th down | 1-5 |
| 25/42 | Comp/Att | 14/30 |
| 5.1 | Yards per pass | 5.1 |
| 3.1 | Yards per rush | 3.4 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 3-20 | Penalties | 5-30 |
| 30:50 | Possession | 29:10 |
Costliest call
Q2 8:39 CAL go for it on 4th & 14 at WSU 34. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.62 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q3 8:47WSUDe'Zhaun Stribling 8 Yd pass from Jayden de Laura (Dean Janikowski Kick)21–6
- Q1 1:46WSUCalvin Jackson Jr. 5 Yd pass from Jayden de Laura (Dean Janikowski Kick)14–6
- Q1 7:44CALChristopher Brooks 11 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)7–6
- Q1 11:21WSUCalvin Jackson Jr. 22 Yd pass from Jayden de Laura (Dean Janikowski Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (CAL Elo 1461, WSU Elo 1418 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects CAL -4.1 (62% to win) — 3.4 points clear of WSU's market line of -7.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2021
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#55 of 112 in 2021 by biggest miss · #61 of 128 in 2021 by longest odds.
The 2021 upset archive →California leads 49–30–5 · 37% have been one-possession games
| WSU | CAL | |
|---|---|---|
| -1.2 (#77) | CORE overall | -1.2 (#78) |
| -3 / -1 | offense / defense | -3 / -2 |
| 2.41 | points / drive | 2.08 |
| 1.99 | allowed / drive | 1.82 |
| 25% | three-and-outs | 28% |
| +10 | pass over expected | +4 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →