Stanford vs. USC: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
STANTeam statsUSC
- Q4 0:46USCDarwin Barlow 4 Yd Run (Kedon Slovis Pass to Gary Bryant Jr. for Two-Point Conversion)42–28
- Q4 5:54USCDrake London 11 Yd pass from Kedon Slovis (Alex Stadthaus Kick)42–20
- Q4 9:16STANIsaiah Sanders 2 Yd Run (Joshua Karty Kick)42–13
- Q3 0:25STANTanner McKee 1 Yd Run (Joshua Karty Kick)35–13
- Q3 5:02STANKyu Blu Kelly 31 Yd Interception Return (Joshua Karty Kick)28–13
- Q3 9:14USCAlex Stadthaus 33 Yd Field Goal 21–13
- Q2 0:09STANBrycen Tremayne 6 Yd pass from Tanner McKee (Joshua Karty Kick)21–10
- Q2 1:56USCAlex Stadthaus 24 Yd Field Goal 14–10
- Q2 8:34STANElijah Higgins 3 Yd pass from Tanner McKee (Joshua Karty Kick)14–7
- Q2 13:28USCKeaontay Ingram 2 Yd Run (Alex Stadthaus Kick)7–7
- Q1 9:04STANNathaniel Peat 87 Yd Run (Joshua Karty Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassTanner McKee 16/23, 234 YDS, 2 TD
- RushNathaniel Peat 6 CAR, 115 YDS, 1 TD
- RecElijah Higgins 5 REC, 67 YDS, 1 TD
- PassKedon Slovis 27/42, 223 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushVavae Malepeai 15 CAR, 94 YDS
- RecDrake London 4 REC, 68 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsSTAN up 22 entering the 4th quarter. Across 824 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 5:02STAN +24%
Kyu Blu Kelly 31 Yd Interception Return (Joshua Karty Kick)
- Q2 0:09STAN +24%
Brycen Tremayne 6 Yd pass from Tanner McKee (Joshua Karty Kick)
- Q2 8:34STAN +21%
Elijah Higgins 3 Yd pass from Tanner McKee (Joshua Karty Kick)
- Q2 13:28USC +19%
Keaontay Ingram 2 Yd Run (Alex Stadthaus Kick)
- Q1 9:04STAN +17%
Nathaniel Peat 87 Yd Run (Joshua Karty Kick)
- Q3 6:23STAN +10%
Ryan Sanborn punt for 59 yds, Gary Bryant Jr. returns for 21 yds to the USC 22
FAQ
What was the final score of Stanford vs. USC?
Stanford 42, USC 28.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked USC, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| STAN | USC | |
|---|---|---|
| 375 | Total yards | 408 |
| 234 | Passing yards | 223 |
| 141 | Rushing yards | 185 |
| 17 | First downs | 24 |
| 5-10 | 3rd down | 6-14 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 16/23 | Comp/Att | 27/42 |
| 10.2 | Yards per pass | 5.3 |
| 4.7 | Yards per rush | 5.6 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 5-27 | Penalties | 9-111 |
| 17:30 | Possession | 42:30 |
Costliest call
Q3 2:47 USC go for it on 4th & 15 at USC 12. The model preferred punt, a gap of 1.12 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:46USCDarwin Barlow 4 Yd Run (Kedon Slovis Pass to Gary Bryant Jr. for Two-Point Conversion)42–28
- Q4 5:54USCDrake London 11 Yd pass from Kedon Slovis (Alex Stadthaus Kick)42–20
- Q4 9:16STANIsaiah Sanders 2 Yd Run (Joshua Karty Kick)42–13
- Q3 0:25STANTanner McKee 1 Yd Run (Joshua Karty Kick)35–13
- Q3 5:02STANKyu Blu Kelly 31 Yd Interception Return (Joshua Karty Kick)28–13
- Q3 9:14USCAlex Stadthaus 33 Yd Field Goal 21–13
- Q2 0:09STANBrycen Tremayne 6 Yd pass from Tanner McKee (Joshua Karty Kick)21–10
- Q2 1:56USCAlex Stadthaus 24 Yd Field Goal 14–10
- Q2 8:34STANElijah Higgins 3 Yd pass from Tanner McKee (Joshua Karty Kick)14–7
- Q2 13:28USCKeaontay Ingram 2 Yd Run (Alex Stadthaus Kick)7–7
- Q1 9:04STANNathaniel Peat 87 Yd Run (Joshua Karty Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (USC Elo 1672, STAN Elo 1441 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects USC -11.6 (79% to win) — 5.9 points clear of STAN's market line of -17.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2021
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#24 of 112 in 2021 by biggest miss · #17 of 128 in 2021 by longest odds · #19 of 62 in 2021 by biggest poll gap.
The 2021 upset archive →USC leads 66–33–3 · USC has won 2 straight · 42% have been one-possession games
| STAN | USC | |
|---|---|---|
| -12.2 (#101) | CORE overall | -4.0 (#84) |
| -8 / +4 | offense / defense | +2 / +6 |
| 1.61 | points / drive | 2.38 |
| 2.82 | allowed / drive | 2.94 |
| 32% | three-and-outs | 19% |
| +7 | pass over expected | +7 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →