Montana vs. Washington: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
Montana
▸
Washington
Final
Husky Stadium
MONTTeam statsWASH
232Total yards291
105Pass226
127Rush65
10First downs21
2-133rd down4-14
0Turnovers3
28:32Possession31:28
- Q4 2:54MONTKevin Macias 22 Yd Field Goal 13–7
- Q4 10:35MONTCamron Humphrey 4 Yd Run (Kevin Macias Kick)10–7
- Q1 7:08MONTKevin Macias 26 Yd Field Goal 3–7
- Q1 10:09WASHDylan Morris 1 Yd Run (Peyton Henry Kick)0–7
How the model called it
Market line
WASH −22.5
Against the number
MONT covered
line WASH −22.5
Kickoff157 plays →Final
Tap or hover on the chart to see play details
WASH (top)MONT (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: WASH 0%
Closing line
WASH −22.5
Closing total
54.0
Model line
—
Actual result
MONT 13 – 7 WASH
consensus, liveWASH −22.5total 54.0
Montana
- PassCamron Humphrey 12/23, 105 YDS
- RushXavier Harris 15 CAR, 70 YDS
- RecMitch Roberts 2 REC, 29 YDS
Washington
- PassDylan Morris 27/46, 226 YDS, 3 INT
- RushRichard Newton 17 CAR, 62 YDS
- RecCade Otton 8 REC, 82 YDS
25.2sper snap · in line with the national 24.5s
fastnational avgslow
Snaps run
137
Points / snap
0.15
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsWASH up 4 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,449 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
65%
WASH went on to win
A genuinely vulnerable lead — comebacks are common
FAQ
What was the final score of Montana vs. Washington?
Montana 13, Washington 7.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked WASH, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
MONT
WASH
25%
Success rate
41%
0.04
EPA / pass
-0.10
0.02
EPA / rush
0.10
28%
Early-down success
45%
21%
Pass success
38%
29%
Rush success
48%
7%
Explosive play rate (15+ yds)
8%
14%
Stuffed rush rate
4%
41%
Pass rate
68%
8.8
Avg 3rd-down distance
8.9
MONT
8.8 yards to go on 3rd down
59 scrimmage snaps
WASH
8.9 yards to go on 3rd down
78 scrimmage snaps
| MONT | WASH | |
|---|---|---|
| 232 | Total yards | 291 |
| 105 | Passing yards | 226 |
| 127 | Rushing yards | 65 |
| 10 | First downs | 21 |
| 2-13 | 3rd down | 4-14 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 1-3 |
| 12/23 | Comp/Att | 27/46 |
| 4.6 | Yards per pass | 4.9 |
| 3.7 | Yards per rush | 2.4 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 7-81 | Penalties | 3-30 |
| 28:32 | Possession | 31:28 |
MONT
7/9 with the model
−1.5 pts · −0.0% win prob
WASH
4/8 with the model
−2.1 pts · −0.0% win prob
Costliest call
Q3 13:31 MONT punt on 4th & 1 at MONT 32. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.94 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finishMONT 3/13 scoring drives← own end zone →WASH 1/13 scoring drives
WASHTD9 pl, 78 yds· own 22Q1
MONTFG8 pl, 66 yds· own 25Q1
WASHDOWNS9 pl, 50 yds· own 18Q1
MONTPUNT3 pl, 8 yds· own 32Q1
WASHPUNT5 pl, 22 yds· own 16Q1
MONTDOWNS4 pl, 7 yds· own 37Q2
WASHPUNT3 pl, 2 yds· opp 44Q2
MONTPUNT3 pl, 5 yds· own 3Q2
WASHFG7 pl, 7 yds· opp 39Q2
MONTPUNT3 pl, 6 yds· own 32Q2
WASHINT4 pl, 22 yds· own 20Q2
MONTPUNT3 pl, -4 yds· own 43Q2
WASHEND4 pl, 33 yds· own 16Q2
MONTPUNT3 pl, 9 yds· own 23Q3
WASHPUNT7 pl, 28 yds· own 10Q3
MONTPUNT4 pl, 2 yds· own 21Q3
WASHPUNT4 pl, 18 yds· own 28Q3
MONTPUNT3 pl, 0 yds· own 10Q3
WASHINT7 pl, 23 yds· own 39Q3
MONTTD10 pl, 69 yds· own 31Q3
WASHPUNT3 pl, -7 yds· own 22Q4
MONTFG11 pl, 42 yds· opp 46Q4
WASHDOWNS6 pl, 20 yds· own 14Q4
MONTFG4 pl, 2 yds· opp 34Q4
WASHINT6 pl, 25 yds· own 32Q4
MONTEND1 pl, -1 yds· own 34Q4
- Q4 2:54MONTKevin Macias 22 Yd Field Goal 13–7
- Q4 10:35MONTCamron Humphrey 4 Yd Run (Kevin Macias Kick)10–7
- Q1 7:08MONTKevin Macias 26 Yd Field Goal 3–7
- Q1 10:09WASHDylan Morris 1 Yd Run (Peyton Henry Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOne or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.
The matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesMontana were +22.5 — a 8% shot
#37 of 112 in 2021 by biggest miss · #10 of 128 in 2021 by longest odds · #44 of 62 in 2021 by biggest poll gap.
The 2021 upset archive →Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →