Michigan State vs. Miami: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
MSUTeam statsMIA
- Q4 2:32MSUJayden Reed 8 Yd Run (Matt Coghlin Kick)38–17
- Q4 4:12MSUJalen Nailor 39 Yd pass from Payton Thorne (Matt Coghlin Kick)31–17
- Q4 8:11MIAAndres Borregales 55 Yd Field Goal 24–17
- Q4 13:10MSUJayden Reed 10 Yd pass from Payton Thorne (Matt Coghlin Kick)24–14
- Q3 3:53MIACharleston Rambo 14 Yd pass from D'Eriq King (Andres Borregales Kick)17–14
- Q3 6:08MSUJalen Nailor 11 Yd pass from Payton Thorne (Matt Coghlin Kick)17–7
- Q2 2:56MSUKenneth Walker III 7 Yd pass from Payton Thorne (Matt Coghlin Kick)10–7
- Q2 10:08MIACharleston Rambo 3 Yd pass from D'Eriq King (Andres Borregales Kick)3–7
- Q2 13:58MSUMatt Coghlin 23 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
- PassPayton Thorne 18/31, 261 YDS, 4 TD
- RushKenneth Walker III 27 CAR, 172 YDS
- RecJalen Nailor 4 REC, 82 YDS, 2 TD
- PassD'Eriq King 38/59, 388 YDS, 2 TD, 2 INT
- RushCam'Ron Harris 11 CAR, 44 YDS
- RecCharleston Rambo 12 REC, 156 YDS, 2 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsMSU up 3 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,457 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 3:53MIA +28%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Charleston Rambo for 14 yds for a TD (Andres Borregales KICK)
- Q4 13:10MSU +26%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 10 yds for a TD (Matt Coghlin KICK)
- Q3 6:08MSU +25%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jalen Nailor for 11 yds for a TD (Matt Coghlin KICK)
- Q2 2:56MSU +22%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Kenneth Walker III for 7 yds for a TD (Matt Coghlin KICK)
- Q2 10:08MIA +19%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Charleston Rambo for 3 yds for a TD (Andres Borregales KICK)
- Q4 6:35MSU +16%
Payton Thorne run for 22 yds to the MiaFl 49 for a 1ST down
FAQ
What was the final score of Michigan State vs. Miami?
Michigan State 38, Miami 17.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked MIA, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| MSU | MIA | |
|---|---|---|
| 454 | Total yards | 440 |
| 261 | Passing yards | 388 |
| 193 | Rushing yards | 52 |
| 23 | First downs | 29 |
| 7-15 | 3rd down | 6-17 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 3-4 |
| 18/31 | Comp/Att | 38/60 |
| 8.4 | Yards per pass | 6.5 |
| 4.7 | Yards per rush | 2.2 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 4 |
| 9-80 | Penalties | 10-84 |
| 31:15 | Possession | 28:45 |
Costliest call
Q2 13:58 MSU field goal on 4th & 3 at MIA 6. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.32 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 2:32MSUJayden Reed 8 Yd Run (Matt Coghlin Kick)38–17
- Q4 4:12MSUJalen Nailor 39 Yd pass from Payton Thorne (Matt Coghlin Kick)31–17
- Q4 8:11MIAAndres Borregales 55 Yd Field Goal 24–17
- Q4 13:10MSUJayden Reed 10 Yd pass from Payton Thorne (Matt Coghlin Kick)24–14
- Q3 3:53MIACharleston Rambo 14 Yd pass from D'Eriq King (Andres Borregales Kick)17–14
- Q3 6:08MSUJalen Nailor 11 Yd pass from Payton Thorne (Matt Coghlin Kick)17–7
- Q2 2:56MSUKenneth Walker III 7 Yd pass from Payton Thorne (Matt Coghlin Kick)10–7
- Q2 10:08MIACharleston Rambo 3 Yd pass from D'Eriq King (Andres Borregales Kick)3–7
- Q2 13:58MSUMatt Coghlin 23 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (MIA Elo 1587, MSU Elo 1489 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects MIA -6.3 (67% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2021
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#39 of 112 in 2021 by biggest miss · #65 of 128 in 2021 by longest odds · #58 of 62 in 2021 by biggest poll gap.
The 2021 upset archive →| MSU | MIA | |
|---|---|---|
| +10.0 (#37) | CORE overall | +5.5 (#51) |
| +7 / -3 | offense / defense | +1 / -4 |
| 2.46 | points / drive | 2.42 |
| 1.97 | allowed / drive | 2.22 |
| 28% | three-and-outs | 30% |
| +2 | pass over expected | +10 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →