Jacksonville State vs. Florida State: Final Score & Recap

ReplayCommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Jacksonville State0-1

▸0020

Florida State0-1

0017

Final

Doak Campbell Stadium

	1	2	3	4	T
JXST	0	7	0	13	20
FSU	0	14	3	0	17

JXSTTeam statsFSU

350Total yards335

242Pass133

108Rush202

21First downs21

8-173rd down4-14

1Turnovers1

32:37Possession27:14

Scoring plays

• Q4 0:00JXSTDamond Philyaw-Johnson 59 Yd pass from Zerrick Cooper 20–17
• Q4 4:45JXSTAhmad Edwards 23 Yd pass from Zerrick Cooper (Alen Karajic Kick)14–17
• Q3 4:20FSURyan Fitzgerald 53 Yd Field Goal 7–17
• Q2 0:09FSUWyatt Rector 2 Yd pass from McKenzie Milton (Ryan Fitzgerald Kick)7–14
• Q2 5:01FSUJashaun Corbin 12 Yd Run (Ryan Fitzgerald Kick)7–7
• Q2 11:08JXSTJosh Samuel 2 Yd Run (Alen Karajic Kick)7–0

How the model called it

Market line

FSU −27.5

Against the number

JXST covered

line FSU −27.5

What the numbers say

• JXST played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and FSU did not face the same ones. 3rd & 9.8 vs 3rd & 7.3

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

FSU 100%50%JXST 100%

Kickoff161 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

FSU (top)JXST (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: FSU 0%

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

FSU −27.5

Closing total

56.5

Model line

—

Actual result

JXST 20 – 17 FSU

consensus, liveFSU −27.5total 56.5

Leaders

Jacksonville State

• PassZerrick Cooper 17/38, 242 YDS, 2 TD
• RushPat Jackson 10 CAR, 39 YDS
• RecP.J. Wells 4 REC, 74 YDS

Florida State

• PassMcKenzie Milton 18/31, 133 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
• RushJashaun Corbin 15 CAR, 109 YDS, 1 TD
• RecDarion Williamson 3 REC, 32 YDS

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

21.4sper snap · faster the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

161

Points / snap

0.23

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

FSU up 10 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,140 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

88%

FSU went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WJacksonville State vs UTEP17-14WMichigan State vs Central Michigan31-7LTexas Southern vs Prairie View A&M34-37WHouston vs UTSA17-14WChattanooga vs Kennesaw State27-20

Fourth downs

18 calls

JXST gave up 0.8 points to the model on fourth down.JXST 6/8 · FSU 8/8 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Jacksonville State vs. Florida State?

Jacksonville State 20, Florida State 17.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

No — the model picked FSU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

JXST

FSU

38%

Success rate

44%

0.12

EPA / pass

0.07

0.19

EPA / rush

0.35

35%

Early-down success

39%

31%

Pass success

41%

49%

Rush success

48%

6%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

7%

11%

Stuffed rush rate

15%

58%

Pass rate

48%

9.8

Avg 3rd-down distance

7.3

JXST

9.8 yards to go on 3rd down

84 scrimmage snaps

FSU

7.3 yards to go on 3rd down

77 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

JXST		FSU
350	Total yards	335
242	Passing yards	133
108	Rushing yards	202
21	First downs	21
8-17	3rd down	4-14
1-1	4th down	0-2
17/38	Comp/Att	18/34
6.4	Yards per pass	3.9
2.8	Yards per rush	5.5
1	Turnovers	1
13-111	Penalties	11-114
32:37	Possession	27:14

Fourth downs

18 calls

JXST

6/8 with the model

−0.8 pts · −0.0% win prob

FSU

8/8 with the model

nothing given up

Costliest call

Q3 13:19 JXST punt on 4th & 1 at JXST 34. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.62 points.

Every call, priced (18)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

JXST 3/13 scoring drives← own end zone →FSU 3/12 scoring drives

FSUDOWNS8 pl, 36 yds· own 20Q1

JXSTPUNT3 pl, 2 yds· own 44Q1

FSUPUNT7 pl, 17 yds· own 3Q1

JXSTPUNT6 pl, 1 yds· own 38Q1

FSUPUNT3 pl, 6 yds· own 29Q1

JXSTTD15 pl, 79 yds· own 21Q1

FSUPUNT3 pl, 0 yds· own 25Q2

JXSTFUM9 pl, 47 yds· own 33Q2

FSUTD5 pl, 53 yds· own 47Q2

JXSTPUNT4 pl, 15 yds· own 25Q2

FSUPUNT3 pl, 2 yds· own 18Q2

JXSTPUNT3 pl, -3 yds· own 42Q2

FSUTD6 pl, 45 yds· opp 45Q2

JXSTEND1 pl, -3 yds· own 25Q2

JXSTPUNT3 pl, 9 yds· own 25Q3

FSUPUNT6 pl, 13 yds· own 21Q3

JXSTPUNT6 pl, 22 yds· own 1Q3

FSUFG10 pl, 35 yds· own 30Q3

JXSTPUNT3 pl, 1 yds· own 25Q3

FSUINT1 pl, 0 yds· own 35Q3

JXSTPUNT3 pl, -17 yds· opp 32Q3

FSUDOWNS15 pl, 89 yds· own 8Q3

JXSTTD11 pl, 97 yds· own 3Q4

FSUPUNT5 pl, 19 yds· own 25Q4

JXSTTD10 pl, 83 yds· own 17Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 0:00JXSTDamond Philyaw-Johnson 59 Yd pass from Zerrick Cooper 20–17
• Q4 4:45JXSTAhmad Edwards 23 Yd pass from Zerrick Cooper (Alen Karajic Kick)14–17
• Q3 4:20FSURyan Fitzgerald 53 Yd Field Goal 7–17
• Q2 0:09FSUWyatt Rector 2 Yd pass from McKenzie Milton (Ryan Fitzgerald Kick)7–14
• Q2 5:01FSUJashaun Corbin 12 Yd Run (Ryan Fitzgerald Kick)7–7
• Q2 11:08JXSTJosh Samuel 2 Yd Run (Alen Karajic Kick)7–0

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

The matchup, in context

series history + adjusted profiles

Jacksonville State were +27.5 — a 4% shot

#28 of 112 in 2021 by biggest miss · #5 of 128 in 2021 by longest odds.

The 2021 upset archive →

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →