Ball State vs. Western Michigan: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
BALLTeam statsWMU
- Q4 4:23BALLBrett Anderson II 18 Yd Fumble Return (Jake Chanove Kick)45–20
- Q4 9:35BALLJ. Hall run for 5 yds for a TD, (J. Chanove KICK)38–20
- Q4 14:00BALLYo'Heinz Tyler 24 Yd pass from Drew Plitt (Jake Chanove Kick)31–20
- Q3 3:13BALLJustin Hall 33 Yd pass from Drew Plitt (Jake Chanove Kick)24–20
- Q3 6:44WMUNick Mihalic 21 Yd Field Goal 17–20
- Q2 0:00BALLJake Chanove 27 Yd Field Goal 17–17
- Q2 4:31WMUNick Mihalic 20 Yd Field Goal 14–17
- Q2 11:05BALLYo'Heinz Tyler 21 Yd pass from Drew Plitt (Jake Chanove Kick)14–14
- Q1 3:35WMUKaleb Eleby 2 Yd Run (Nick Mihalic Kick)7–14
- Q1 9:03WMULa'Darius Jefferson 1 Yd Run (Nick Mihalic Kick)7–7
- Q1 14:49BALLJalen McGaughy 75 Yd pass from Drew Plitt (Jake Chanove Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- BALL lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 20% explosive on a 38% success rate
- PassDrew Plitt 15/25, 310 YDS, 4 TD
- RushCarson Steele 10 CAR, 41 YDS
- RecYo'Heinz Tyler 5 REC, 93 YDS, 2 TD
- PassKaleb Eleby 19/33, 257 YDS, 2 INT
- RushLa'Darius Jefferson 21 CAR, 65 YDS, 1 TD
- RecSkyy Moore 7 REC, 81 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsBALL up 4 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,449 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 3:13BALL +31%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Justin Hall for 33 yds for a TD (Jake Chanove KICK)
- Q4 14:00BALL +25%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Yo'Heinz Tyler for 24 yds for a TD (Jake Chanove KICK)
- Q2 11:05BALL +18%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Yo'Heinz Tyler for 21 yds for a TD (Jake Chanove KICK)
- Q3 6:44WMU +17%
Nick Mihalic 21 yd FG GOOD
- Q1 9:03WMU +17%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 1 yd for a TD (Nick Mihalic KICK)
- Q1 3:35WMU +16%
Kaleb Eleby run for 2 yds for a TD (Nick Mihalic KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Ball State vs. Western Michigan?
Ball State 45, Western Michigan 20.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked WMU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| BALL | WMU | |
|---|---|---|
| 361 | Total yards | 376 |
| 310 | Passing yards | 257 |
| 51 | Rushing yards | 119 |
| 18 | First downs | 23 |
| 4-10 | 3rd down | 8-16 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 1-3 |
| 15/26 | Comp/Att | 19/35 |
| 11.9 | Yards per pass | 7.3 |
| 1.8 | Yards per rush | 2.4 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 4 |
| 3-35 | Penalties | 4-23 |
| 23:37 | Possession | 36:23 |
Costliest call
Q2 4:31 WMU field goal on 4th & 3 at BALL 3. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.83 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 4:23BALLBrett Anderson II 18 Yd Fumble Return (Jake Chanove Kick)45–20
- Q4 9:35BALLJ. Hall run for 5 yds for a TD, (J. Chanove KICK)38–20
- Q4 14:00BALLYo'Heinz Tyler 24 Yd pass from Drew Plitt (Jake Chanove Kick)31–20
- Q3 3:13BALLJustin Hall 33 Yd pass from Drew Plitt (Jake Chanove Kick)24–20
- Q3 6:44WMUNick Mihalic 21 Yd Field Goal 17–20
- Q2 0:00BALLJake Chanove 27 Yd Field Goal 17–17
- Q2 4:31WMUNick Mihalic 20 Yd Field Goal 14–17
- Q2 11:05BALLYo'Heinz Tyler 21 Yd pass from Drew Plitt (Jake Chanove Kick)14–14
- Q1 3:35WMUKaleb Eleby 2 Yd Run (Nick Mihalic Kick)7–14
- Q1 9:03WMULa'Darius Jefferson 1 Yd Run (Nick Mihalic Kick)7–7
- Q1 14:49BALLJalen McGaughy 75 Yd pass from Drew Plitt (Jake Chanove Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (WMU Elo 1511, BALL Elo 1432 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects WMU -5.6 (66% to win) — 6.9 points clear of BALL's market line of -12.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2021
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#8 of 112 in 2021 by biggest miss · #33 of 128 in 2021 by longest odds.
The 2021 upset archive →Western Michigan leads 30–22 · Western Michigan has won 4 straight · 48% have been one-possession games
| BALL | WMU | |
|---|---|---|
| -16.7 (#107) | CORE overall | -0.2 (#72) |
| -11 / +6 | offense / defense | +6 / +6 |
| 1.85 | points / drive | 2.80 |
| 2.44 | allowed / drive | 2.48 |
| 21% | three-and-outs | 19% |
| +4 | pass over expected | -3 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →