Army vs. Georgia State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
ARMYTeam statsGAST
- Q4 5:29ARMYBraheam Murphy 32 Yd pass from Jemel Jones (Cole Talley Kick)43–10
- Q4 12:07ARMYCole Talley 22 Yd Field Goal 36–10
- Q3 5:09GASTNoel Ruiz 33 Yd Field Goal 33–10
- Q3 9:33ARMYTyrell Robinson 40 Yd pass from Christian Anderson (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)33–7
- Q2 0:00ARMYChristian Anderson 2 Yd Run (Cole Talley PAT blocked)27–7
- Q2 4:03GASTDestin Coates 16 Yd Run (Noel Ruiz Kick)21–7
- Q2 8:12ARMYJakobi Buchanan 2 Yd Run (Cole Talley Kick)21–0
- Q1 1:59ARMYA.J. Howard Jr. 4 Yd Run (Cole Talley Kick)14–0
- Q1 9:17ARMYTyson Riley 4 Yd Run (Cole Talley Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- GAST played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and ARMY did not face the same ones. 3rd & 7.8 vs 3rd & 4.2
- PassChristian Anderson 1/2, 40 YDS, 1 TD
- RushChristian Anderson 15 CAR, 55 YDS, 1 TD
- RecTyrell Robinson 1 REC, 40 YDS, 1 TD
- PassCornelious Brown IV 12/20, 129 YDS, 1 INT
- RushDestin Coates 13 CAR, 48 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJamari Thrash 7 REC, 87 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsARMY up 23 entering the 4th quarter. Across 836 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 9:17ARMY +17%
Tyson Riley run for 4 yds for a TD, (Cole Talley KICK)
- Q1 1:59ARMY +14%
A.J. Howard Jr. run for 4 yds for a TD, (Cole Talley KICK)
- Q2 8:12ARMY +8%
Jakobi Buchanan run for 2 yds for a TD, (Cole Talley KICK)
- Q2 4:03GAST +7%
Destin Coates run for 16 yds for a TD, (Noel Ruiz KICK)
- Q2 0:00ARMY +5%
Christian Anderson run for 2 yds for a TD, (Cole Talley PAT BLOCKED)
FAQ
What was the final score of Army vs. Georgia State?
Army 43, Georgia State 10.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (ARMY) was correct.
| ARMY | GAST | |
|---|---|---|
| 356 | Total yards | 177 |
| 98 | Passing yards | 129 |
| 258 | Rushing yards | 48 |
| 20 | First downs | 14 |
| 10-16 | 3rd down | 4-10 |
| 3-3 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 3/4 | Comp/Att | 12/20 |
| 24.5 | Yards per pass | 6.5 |
| 3.9 | Yards per rush | 1.7 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 2-20 | Penalties | 5-55 |
| 42:07 | Possession | 17:53 |
Costliest call
Q4 12:07 ARMY field goal on 4th & 2 at GAST 5. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.71 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 5:29ARMYBraheam Murphy 32 Yd pass from Jemel Jones (Cole Talley Kick)43–10
- Q4 12:07ARMYCole Talley 22 Yd Field Goal 36–10
- Q3 5:09GASTNoel Ruiz 33 Yd Field Goal 33–10
- Q3 9:33ARMYTyrell Robinson 40 Yd pass from Christian Anderson (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)33–7
- Q2 0:00ARMYChristian Anderson 2 Yd Run (Cole Talley PAT blocked)27–7
- Q2 4:03GASTDestin Coates 16 Yd Run (Noel Ruiz Kick)21–7
- Q2 8:12ARMYJakobi Buchanan 2 Yd Run (Cole Talley Kick)21–0
- Q1 1:59ARMYA.J. Howard Jr. 4 Yd Run (Cole Talley Kick)14–0
- Q1 9:17ARMYTyson Riley 4 Yd Run (Cole Talley Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (GAST Elo 1410, ARMY Elo 1549 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects GAST +3.2 (43% to win) — 5.7 points clear of ARMY's market line of -2.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2021
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#12 of 112 in 2021 by biggest miss · #101 of 128 in 2021 by longest odds.
The 2021 upset archive →| ARMY | GAST | |
|---|---|---|
| -0.5 (#74) | CORE overall | +2.7 (#60) |
| +2 / +2 | offense / defense | -0 / -3 |
| 3.18 | points / drive | 2.30 |
| 2.33 | allowed / drive | 2.26 |
| 19% | three-and-outs | 27% |
| -31 | pass over expected | -8 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →