Western Kentucky vs. Florida International: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
WKUTeam statsFIU
- Q4 7:01FIUPharoah McKever 24 Yd pass from Stone Wilson (Jose Borregales Kick)17–41
- Q3 1:52FIUD'Vonte Price 38 Yd Fumble Return (Jose Borregales Kick)17–34
- Q3 4:21FIUShawndarrius Phillips 1 Yd Run (Jose Borregales Kick)17–27
- Q3 7:21FIUDarrius Scott 42 Yd pass from Alex McGough (Jose Borregales Kick)17–20
- Q3 9:49WKUNacarius Fant 14 Yd pass from Mike White (Ryan Nuss Kick)17–13
- Q2 1:07FIUJose Borregales 20 Yd Field Goal 10–13
- Q2 7:24FIUShawndarrius Phillips 4 Yd Run (Jose Borregales Kick)10–10
- Q2 12:35WKULucky Jackson 28 Yd pass from Mike White (Ryan Nuss Kick)10–3
- Q1 0:57WKURyan Nuss 38 Yd Field Goal 3–3
- Q1 5:29FIUJose Borregales 22 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- FIU lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 15% explosive on a 39% success rate
- PassMike White 30/49, 355 YDS, 2 TD
- RushD'Andre Ferby 12 CAR, 54 YDS
- RecCameron Echols-Luper 8 REC, 101 YDS
- PassAlex McGough 17/26, 227 YDS, 1 TD
- RushShawndarrius Phillips 17 CAR, 69 YDS, 2 TD
- RecPharoah McKever 3 REC, 62 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsFIU up 17 entering the 4th quarter. Across 841 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 4:21FIU +30%
Shawndarrius Phillips run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jose Borregales KICK)
- Q3 7:21FIU +26%
Alex McGough pass complete to Darrius Scott for 42 yds for a TD, (Jose Borregales KICK)
- Q3 9:49WKU +21%
Mike White pass complete to Nacarius Fant for 14 yds for a TD, (Ryan Nuss KICK)
- Q3 1:52FIU +17%
Jake Collins run for a loss of 12 yards Jake Collins fumbled, recovered by FlaIn D'Vonte Price, return for 38 yds WESTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, illegal batting ( Yards) dec…
- Q2 7:24FIU +16%
Shawndarrius Phillips run for 4 yds for a TD, (Jose Borregales KICK)
- Q2 12:35WKU +15%
Mike White pass complete to Lucky Jackson for 28 yds for a TD, (Ryan Nuss KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Western Kentucky vs. Florida International?
Western Kentucky 17, Florida International 41.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked WKU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| WKU | FIU | |
|---|---|---|
| 401 | Total yards | 373 |
| 355 | Passing yards | 251 |
| 46 | Rushing yards | 122 |
| 23 | First downs | 18 |
| 6-15 | 3rd down | 7-14 |
| 1-4 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 30/49 | Comp/Att | 18/27 |
| 7.2 | Yards per pass | 9.3 |
| 1.6 | Yards per rush | 3.6 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 4-32 | Penalties | 2-19 |
| 29:35 | Possession | 30:25 |
Costliest call
Q4 11:04 FIU punt on 4th & 1 at FIU 29. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.11 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 7:01FIUPharoah McKever 24 Yd pass from Stone Wilson (Jose Borregales Kick)17–41
- Q3 1:52FIUD'Vonte Price 38 Yd Fumble Return (Jose Borregales Kick)17–34
- Q3 4:21FIUShawndarrius Phillips 1 Yd Run (Jose Borregales Kick)17–27
- Q3 7:21FIUDarrius Scott 42 Yd pass from Alex McGough (Jose Borregales Kick)17–20
- Q3 9:49WKUNacarius Fant 14 Yd pass from Mike White (Ryan Nuss Kick)17–13
- Q2 1:07FIUJose Borregales 20 Yd Field Goal 10–13
- Q2 7:24FIUShawndarrius Phillips 4 Yd Run (Jose Borregales Kick)10–10
- Q2 12:35WKULucky Jackson 28 Yd pass from Mike White (Ryan Nuss Kick)10–3
- Q1 0:57WKURyan Nuss 38 Yd Field Goal 3–3
- Q1 5:29FIUJose Borregales 22 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (FIU Elo 1207, WKU Elo 1554 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects FIU +11.5 (23% to win) — 8.5 points clear of WKU's market line of +3. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2017
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#36 of 107 in 2017 by biggest miss · #91 of 126 in 2017 by longest odds.
The 2017 upset archive →Western Kentucky leads 11–7 · 28% have been one-possession games
| WKU | FIU | |
|---|---|---|
| -9.8 (#95) | CORE overall | -14.1 (#106) |
| -3 / +7 | offense / defense | -2 / +12 |
| 2.11 | points / drive | 2.18 |
| 2.09 | allowed / drive | 2.63 |
| 26% | three-and-outs | 23% |
| +17 | pass over expected | -2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →