North Texas vs. Southern Miss: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
UNTTeam statsUSM
- Q4 4:30UNTTrevor Moore 44 Yd Field Goal 43–28
- Q4 11:29UNTJeffery Wilson 6 Yd Run (Trevor Moore Kick)40–28
- Q3 0:00USMIto Smith 4 Yd Run (Parker Shaunfield Kick)33–28
- Q3 2:49UNTJeffery Wilson 43 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)33–21
- Q3 4:08UNTRico Bussey Jr. 16 Yd pass from Mason Fine (Trevor Moore Kick)27–21
- Q3 9:01UNTTrevor Moore 20 Yd Field Goal 20–21
- Q2 0:00UNTTrevor Moore 48 Yd Field Goal 17–21
- Q2 2:42UNTJalen Guyton 2 Yd pass from Mason Fine (Trevor Moore Kick)14–21
- Q2 10:00USMIto Smith 65 Yd Run (Parker Shaunfield Kick)7–21
- Q1 0:47UNTJeffery Wilson 46 Yd Run (Trevor Moore Kick)7–14
- Q1 5:38USMKwadra Griggs 4 Yd Run (Parker Shaunfield Kick)0–14
- Q1 11:44USMAllenzae Staggers 7 Yd pass from Kwadra Griggs (Parker Shaunfield Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- USM played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and UNT did not face the same ones. 3rd & 9.6 vs 3rd & 6.1
- PassMason Fine 24/40, 366 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushJeff Wilson Jr. 30 CAR, 148 YDS, 3 TD
- RecJalen Guyton 14 REC, 211 YDS, 1 TD
- PassKwadra Griggs 19/42, 270 YDS, 1 TD
- RushIto Smith 13 CAR, 102 YDS, 2 TD
- RecAllenzae Staggers 5 REC, 112 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUNT up 5 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,967 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 4:08UNT +31%
Mason Fine pass complete to Rico Bussey Jr. for 16 yds for a TD, (Trevor Moore KICK)
- Q4 11:29UNT +28%
Jeffery Wilson run for 6 yds for a TD, (Trevor Moore KICK)
- Q3 0:00USM +26%
Ito Smith run for 4 yds for a TD, (Parker Shaunfield KICK)
- Q3 2:49UNT +21%
Jeffery Wilson run for 43 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )
- Q4 15:00UNT +14%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Rico Bussey Jr., broken up by Cornell Armstrong
- Q1 11:44USM +12%
Kwadra Griggs pass complete to Allenzae Staggers for 7 yds for a TD, (Parker Shaunfield KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of North Texas vs. Southern Miss?
North Texas 43, Southern Miss 28.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked USM, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| UNT | USM | |
|---|---|---|
| 540 | Total yards | 415 |
| 366 | Passing yards | 270 |
| 174 | Rushing yards | 145 |
| 24 | First downs | 18 |
| 9-21 | 3rd down | 5-15 |
| 4-4 | 4th down | 0-2 |
| 24/41 | Comp/Att | 19/42 |
| 8.9 | Yards per pass | 6.4 |
| 3.8 | Yards per rush | 5.0 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 3-19 | Penalties | 6-64 |
| 36:33 | Possession | 23:27 |
Costliest call
Q3 9:01 UNT field goal on 4th & 3 at USM 3. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.83 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 4:30UNTTrevor Moore 44 Yd Field Goal 43–28
- Q4 11:29UNTJeffery Wilson 6 Yd Run (Trevor Moore Kick)40–28
- Q3 0:00USMIto Smith 4 Yd Run (Parker Shaunfield Kick)33–28
- Q3 2:49UNTJeffery Wilson 43 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)33–21
- Q3 4:08UNTRico Bussey Jr. 16 Yd pass from Mason Fine (Trevor Moore Kick)27–21
- Q3 9:01UNTTrevor Moore 20 Yd Field Goal 20–21
- Q2 0:00UNTTrevor Moore 48 Yd Field Goal 17–21
- Q2 2:42UNTJalen Guyton 2 Yd pass from Mason Fine (Trevor Moore Kick)14–21
- Q2 10:00USMIto Smith 65 Yd Run (Parker Shaunfield Kick)7–21
- Q1 0:47UNTJeffery Wilson 46 Yd Run (Trevor Moore Kick)7–14
- Q1 5:38USMKwadra Griggs 4 Yd Run (Parker Shaunfield Kick)0–14
- Q1 11:44USMAllenzae Staggers 7 Yd pass from Kwadra Griggs (Parker Shaunfield Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (USM Elo 1426, UNT Elo 1212 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects USM -11 (77% to win) — 3.5 points clear of USM's market line of -7.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2017
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#50 of 107 in 2017 by biggest miss · #58 of 126 in 2017 by longest odds.
The 2017 upset archive →The series is level at 8–8 · 13% have been one-possession games
| UNT | USM | |
|---|---|---|
| -3.3 (#72) | CORE overall | -5.1 (#81) |
| +3 / +6 | offense / defense | -6 / -1 |
| 2.67 | points / drive | 2.09 |
| 2.60 | allowed / drive | 1.97 |
| 26% | three-and-outs | 31% |
| +7 | pass over expected | -1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →