Cincinnati vs. East Carolina: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
CINTeam statsECU
- Q4 5:06ECUTrevon Brown 20 Yd pass from Reid Herring (Jake Verity Kick)20–48
- Q4 10:17ECUJake Verity 50 Yd Field Goal 20–41
- Q3 0:46CINJerron Rollins 6 Yd pass from Hayden Moore (Ryan Jones Kick)20–38
- Q3 6:03ECUDeondre Farrier 22 Yd pass from Gardner Minshew (Jake Verity Kick)13–38
- Q3 13:32ECUTrevon Brown 95 Yd pass from Gardner Minshew (Jake Verity Kick)13–31
- Q2 0:24ECUJake Verity 46 Yd Field Goal 13–24
- Q2 1:29CINJaQuay Savage 10 Yd pass from Hayden Moore (Ryan Jones Kick)13–21
- Q2 8:51CINKahlil Lewis 75 Yd pass from Hayden Moore (Ryan Jones PAT failed)6–21
- Q2 9:02ECUJimmy Williams 11 Yd pass from Gardner Minshew (Jake Verity Kick)0–21
- Q1 6:19ECUHussein Howe 3 Yd Run (Jake Verity Kick)0–14
- Q1 12:30ECUTahj Deans 23 Yd pass from Gardner Minshew (Jake Verity Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- CIN played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and ECU did not face the same ones. 3rd & 11.5 vs 3rd & 7.4
- PassHayden Moore 15/28, 187 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- RushMike Boone 15 CAR, 62 YDS
- RecKahlil Lewis 2 REC, 84 YDS, 1 TD
- PassGardner Minshew II 31/45, 444 YDS, 4 TD
- RushHussein Howe 16 CAR, 47 YDS, 1 TD
- RecTrevon Brown 9 REC, 270 YDS, 2 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsECU up 18 entering the 4th quarter. Across 838 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 12:30ECU +18%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Tahj Deans for 23 yds for a TD, (Jake Verity KICK)
- Q1 6:19ECU +18%
Hussein Howe run for 3 yds for a TD, (Jake Verity KICK)
- Q3 13:32ECU +17%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Trevon Brown for 95 yds for a TD, (Jake Verity KICK)
- Q2 1:29CIN +16%
Hayden Moore pass complete to JaQuay Savage for 10 yds for a TD, (Ryan Jones KICK)
- Q2 9:02ECU +13%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Jimmy Williams for 11 yds for a TD, (Jake Verity KICK)
- Q2 8:51CIN +9%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Kahlil Lewis for 75 yds for a TD, (Ryan Jones PAT MISSED)
FAQ
What was the final score of Cincinnati vs. East Carolina?
Cincinnati 20, East Carolina 48.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked CIN, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| CIN | ECU | |
|---|---|---|
| 326 | Total yards | 578 |
| 187 | Passing yards | 464 |
| 139 | Rushing yards | 114 |
| 17 | First downs | 28 |
| 3-10 | 3rd down | 8-16 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 2-2 |
| 15/28 | Comp/Att | 32/46 |
| 6.7 | Yards per pass | 10.1 |
| 4.5 | Yards per rush | 3.5 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 10-90 | Penalties | 7-54 |
| 26:19 | Possession | 33:41 |
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 5:06ECUTrevon Brown 20 Yd pass from Reid Herring (Jake Verity Kick)20–48
- Q4 10:17ECUJake Verity 50 Yd Field Goal 20–41
- Q3 0:46CINJerron Rollins 6 Yd pass from Hayden Moore (Ryan Jones Kick)20–38
- Q3 6:03ECUDeondre Farrier 22 Yd pass from Gardner Minshew (Jake Verity Kick)13–38
- Q3 13:32ECUTrevon Brown 95 Yd pass from Gardner Minshew (Jake Verity Kick)13–31
- Q2 0:24ECUJake Verity 46 Yd Field Goal 13–24
- Q2 1:29CINJaQuay Savage 10 Yd pass from Hayden Moore (Ryan Jones Kick)13–21
- Q2 8:51CINKahlil Lewis 75 Yd pass from Hayden Moore (Ryan Jones PAT failed)6–21
- Q2 9:02ECUJimmy Williams 11 Yd pass from Gardner Minshew (Jake Verity Kick)0–21
- Q1 6:19ECUHussein Howe 3 Yd Run (Jake Verity Kick)0–14
- Q1 12:30ECUTahj Deans 23 Yd pass from Gardner Minshew (Jake Verity Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ECU Elo 1133, CIN Elo 1278 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects ECU +3.4 (42% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2017
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#21 of 107 in 2017 by biggest miss · #82 of 126 in 2017 by longest odds.
The 2017 upset archive →The series is level at 13–13 · Cincinnati has won 5 straight · 38% have been one-possession games
| CIN | ECU | |
|---|---|---|
| -11.7 (#102) | CORE overall | -27.2 (#125) |
| -4 / +7 | offense / defense | -2 / +25 |
| 1.57 | points / drive | 1.89 |
| 2.80 | allowed / drive | 3.62 |
| 33% | three-and-outs | 26% |
| +4 | pass over expected | +11 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →