Ohio State vs. Penn State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
OSUTeam statsPSU
- Q4 4:27PSUGrant Haley 60 Yd Return of Blocked Field Goal (Tyler Davis Kick)21–24
- Q4 9:33PSUTyler Davis 34 Yd Field Goal 21–17
- Q4 13:32PSUTrace McSorley 2 Yd Run (Tyler Davis Kick)21–14
- Q3 8:31OSUTeam Safety 21–7
- Q3 10:10OSUCurtis Samuel 74 Yd Run (Tyler Durbin Kick)19–7
- Q2 0:09PSUChris Godwin 20 Yd pass from Trace McSorley (Tyler Davis Kick)12–7
- Q2 1:14OSUTyler Durbin 30 Yd Field Goal 12–0
- Q2 4:53OSUMarcus Baugh 26 Yd pass from J.T. Barrett (Tyler Durbin PAT failed)9–0
- Q2 14:55OSUTyler Durbin 33 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- PSU lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 17% explosive on a 32% success rate
- PassJ.T. Barrett 28/43, 245 YDS, 1 TD
- RushCurtis Samuel 2 CAR, 71 YDS, 1 TD
- RecCurtis Samuel 8 REC, 68 YDS
- PassTrace McSorley 8/23, 154 YDS, 1 TD
- RushSaquon Barkley 12 CAR, 99 YDS
- RecMike Gesicki 4 REC, 46 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsOSU up 14 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,012 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 0:00PSU +50%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the OhSt 36
- Q4 4:27PSU +41%
Grant Haley 60 Yd Return of Blocked Field Goal (Tyler Davis Kick)
- Q4 1:10PSU +22%
J.T. Barrett sacked by Jason Cabinda for a loss of 13 yards to the OhSt 29
- Q4 1:02PSU +17%
J.T. Barrett sacked by Evan Schwan and Kevin Givens for a loss of 6 yards to the OhSt 23
- Q4 2:45OSU +14%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Curtis Samuel for 15 yds to the OhSt 27 for a 1ST down
- Q4 4:39OSU +11%
J.T. Barrett pass incomplete
FAQ
What was the final score of Ohio State vs. Penn State?
Ohio State 21, Penn State 24.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked OSU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| OSU | PSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 413 | Total yards | 276 |
| 245 | Passing yards | 154 |
| 168 | Rushing yards | 122 |
| 19 | First downs | 13 |
| 9-22 | 3rd down | 2-13 |
| 1-2 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 28/43 | Comp/Att | 8/23 |
| 5.7 | Yards per pass | 6.7 |
| 4.2 | Yards per rush | 3.3 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 8-45 | Penalties | 1-5 |
| 37:19 | Possession | 22:41 |
Costliest call
Q1 8:40 OSU punt on 4th & 1 at OSU 27. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.93 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 4:27PSUGrant Haley 60 Yd Return of Blocked Field Goal (Tyler Davis Kick)21–24
- Q4 9:33PSUTyler Davis 34 Yd Field Goal 21–17
- Q4 13:32PSUTrace McSorley 2 Yd Run (Tyler Davis Kick)21–14
- Q3 8:31OSUTeam Safety 21–7
- Q3 10:10OSUCurtis Samuel 74 Yd Run (Tyler Durbin Kick)19–7
- Q2 0:09PSUChris Godwin 20 Yd pass from Trace McSorley (Tyler Davis Kick)12–7
- Q2 1:14OSUTyler Durbin 30 Yd Field Goal 12–0
- Q2 4:53OSUMarcus Baugh 26 Yd pass from J.T. Barrett (Tyler Durbin PAT failed)9–0
- Q2 14:55OSUTyler Durbin 33 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (PSU Elo 1569, OSU Elo 2203 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects PSU +23 (8% to win) — 4.5 points clear of OSU's market line of +18.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2016
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#58 of 113 in 2016 by biggest miss · #9 of 124 in 2016 by longest odds · #1 of 61 in 2016 by biggest poll gap.
The 2016 upset archive →Ohio State leads 27–14 · Ohio State has won 9 straight · 44% have been one-possession games
| OSU | PSU | |
|---|---|---|
| +28.9 (#6) | CORE overall | +12.3 (#23) |
| +7 / -22 | offense / defense | +7 / -6 |
| 2.97 | points / drive | 2.93 |
| 0.89 | allowed / drive | 1.93 |
| 23% | three-and-outs | 27% |
| -2 | pass over expected | -1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →