Arizona State vs. Arizona: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
ASUTeam statsARIZ
- Q4 7:45ARIZSamajie Grant 63 Yd Run (Josh Pollack Kick)35–56
- Q4 8:29ASUFrederick Gammage 7 Yd pass from Manny Wilkins (Zane Gonzalez Kick)35–49
- Q4 11:45ARIZSamajie Grant 2 Yd Run (Josh Pollack Kick)28–49
- Q3 5:41ARIZZach Green 1 Yd Run (Josh Pollack Kick)28–42
- Q3 7:29ASUN'Keal Harry 16 Yd pass from Manny Wilkins (Zane Gonzalez Kick)28–35
- Q3 9:52ARIZSamajie Grant 9 Yd Run (Josh Pollack Kick)21–35
- Q3 11:14ASUKalen Ballage 2 Yd Run (Zane Gonzalez Kick)21–28
- Q2 0:34ASUTim White 21 Yd pass from Manny Wilkins (Zane Gonzalez Kick)14–28
- Q2 7:07ARIZZach Green 1 Yd Run (Josh Pollack Kick)7–28
- Q2 10:08ARIZNate Phillips 64 Yd pass from Brandon Dawkins (Josh Pollack Kick)7–21
- Q2 14:18ARIZBrandon Dawkins 10 Yd Run (Josh Pollack Kick)7–14
- Q1 7:49ASUKoron Crump 42 Yd Fumble Return (Zane Gonzalez Kick)7–7
- Q1 13:48ARIZBrandon Dawkins 71 Yd Run (Josh Pollack Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassManny Wilkins 43/58, 372 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- RushManny Wilkins 23 CAR, 79 YDS
- RecFrederick Gammage 12 REC, 116 YDS, 1 TD
- PassBrandon Dawkins 3/8, 77 YDS, 1 TD
- RushBrandon Dawkins 12 CAR, 183 YDS, 2 TD
- RecNate Phillips 2 REC, 68 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsARIZ up 14 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,012 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 5:41ARIZ +30%
Zach Green 1 Yd Run (Josh Pollack Kick)
- Q2 10:08ARIZ +23%
Nate Phillips 64 Yd pass from Brandon Dawkins (Josh Pollack Kick)
- Q3 7:29ASU +23%
N'Keal Harry 16 Yd pass from Manny Wilkins (Zane Gonzalez Kick)
- Q3 11:14ASU +22%
Kalen Ballage 2 Yd Run (Zane Gonzalez Kick)
- Q3 9:52ARIZ +21%
Samajie Grant 9 Yd Run (Josh Pollack Kick)
- Q2 14:18ARIZ +20%
Brandon Dawkins 10 Yd Run (Josh Pollack Kick)
FAQ
What was the final score of Arizona State vs. Arizona?
Arizona State 35, Arizona 56.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked ASU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| ASU | ARIZ | |
|---|---|---|
| 492 | Total yards | 588 |
| 372 | Passing yards | 77 |
| 120 | Rushing yards | 511 |
| 31 | First downs | 19 |
| 11-21 | 3rd down | 2-8 |
| 1-6 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 43/60 | Comp/Att | 3/8 |
| 6.2 | Yards per pass | 9.6 |
| 3.2 | Yards per rush | 10.6 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 8-61 | Penalties | 8-101 |
| 35:56 | Possession | 24:04 |
Costliest call
Q3 0:59 ARIZ punt on 4th & 1 at ARIZ 28. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.05 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 7:45ARIZSamajie Grant 63 Yd Run (Josh Pollack Kick)35–56
- Q4 8:29ASUFrederick Gammage 7 Yd pass from Manny Wilkins (Zane Gonzalez Kick)35–49
- Q4 11:45ARIZSamajie Grant 2 Yd Run (Josh Pollack Kick)28–49
- Q3 5:41ARIZZach Green 1 Yd Run (Josh Pollack Kick)28–42
- Q3 7:29ASUN'Keal Harry 16 Yd pass from Manny Wilkins (Zane Gonzalez Kick)28–35
- Q3 9:52ARIZSamajie Grant 9 Yd Run (Josh Pollack Kick)21–35
- Q3 11:14ASUKalen Ballage 2 Yd Run (Zane Gonzalez Kick)21–28
- Q2 0:34ASUTim White 21 Yd pass from Manny Wilkins (Zane Gonzalez Kick)14–28
- Q2 7:07ARIZZach Green 1 Yd Run (Josh Pollack Kick)7–28
- Q2 10:08ARIZNate Phillips 64 Yd pass from Brandon Dawkins (Josh Pollack Kick)7–21
- Q2 14:18ARIZBrandon Dawkins 10 Yd Run (Josh Pollack Kick)7–14
- Q1 7:49ASUKoron Crump 42 Yd Fumble Return (Zane Gonzalez Kick)7–7
- Q1 13:48ARIZBrandon Dawkins 71 Yd Run (Josh Pollack Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ARIZ Elo 1159, ASU Elo 1450 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects ARIZ +9.2 (28% to win) — 6.7 points clear of ASU's market line of +2.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2016
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#41 of 113 in 2016 by biggest miss · #82 of 124 in 2016 by longest odds.
The 2016 upset archive →Arizona State leads 45–43–1 · 33% have been one-possession games
| ASU | ARIZ | |
|---|---|---|
| -14.9 (#107) | CORE overall | -1.7 (#72) |
| -8 / +7 | offense / defense | +3 / +5 |
| 2.11 | points / drive | 1.97 |
| 2.69 | allowed / drive | 3.28 |
| 37% | three-and-outs | 30% |
| +1 | pass over expected | -11 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →