UConn vs. UCF: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
CONNTeam statsUCF
- Q4 1:38UCFNick Patti 11 Yd pass from Justin Holman (Matthew Wright Kick)40–13
- Q4 9:22UCFMatthew Wright 45 Yd Field Goal 40–6
- Q3 1:53CONNArkeel Newsome 8 Yd Run (Bobby Puyol Kick)40–3
- Q3 9:12CONNRon Johnson 12 Yd Run (Bobby Puyol Kick)33–3
- Q3 11:50CONNBobby Puyol 21 Yd Field Goal 26–3
- Q2 0:49CONNNoel Thomas 16 Yd pass from Bryant Shirreffs (Bobby Puyol Kick)23–3
- Q2 1:22CONNBryant Shirreffs 1 Yd Run (Bobby Puyol Kick)16–3
- Q1 6:01CONNTeam Safety 9–3
- Q1 6:02CONNArkeel Newsome 5 Yd Run (Bobby Puyol Kick)7–3
- Q1 10:06UCFMatthew Wright 19 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- CONN lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 14% explosive on a 40% success rate
- PassBryant Shirreffs 16/22, 256 YDS, 1 TD
- RushArkeel Newsome 13 CAR, 84 YDS, 2 TD
- RecAlec Bloom 4 REC, 67 YDS
- PassJustin Holman 27/50, 255 YDS, 1 TD, 3 INT
- RushC.J. Jones 7 CAR, 44 YDS
- RecMichael Willett 5 REC, 65 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsCONN up 37 entering the 4th quarter. Across 313 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 1:22CONN +28%
Bryant Shirreffs run for 1 yd for a TD, (Bobby Puyol KICK) UCF Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined
- Q1 6:02CONN +18%
Arkeel Newsome run for 5 yds for a TD, (Bobby Puyol KICK)
- Q2 0:49CONN +14%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Noel Thomas for 16 yds for a TD, (Bobby Puyol KICK)
- Q1 6:01CONN +7%
Michael Tarbutt kickoff for 65 yds for a SAFETY, Hayden Jones return for no gain
- Q1 10:06UCF +5%
Matthew Wright 19 yd FG GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of UConn vs. UCF?
UConn 40, UCF 13.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked UCF, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| CONN | UCF | |
|---|---|---|
| 433 | Total yards | 315 |
| 263 | Passing yards | 255 |
| 170 | Rushing yards | 60 |
| 20 | First downs | 21 |
| 5-15 | 3rd down | 2-12 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 18/24 | Comp/Att | 27/50 |
| 11.0 | Yards per pass | 5.1 |
| 3.8 | Yards per rush | 4.3 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 4 |
| 11-69 | Penalties | 5-52 |
| 38:04 | Possession | 21:56 |
Costliest call
Q1 10:06 UCF field goal on 4th & 2 at CONN 2. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.39 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:38UCFNick Patti 11 Yd pass from Justin Holman (Matthew Wright Kick)40–13
- Q4 9:22UCFMatthew Wright 45 Yd Field Goal 40–6
- Q3 1:53CONNArkeel Newsome 8 Yd Run (Bobby Puyol Kick)40–3
- Q3 9:12CONNRon Johnson 12 Yd Run (Bobby Puyol Kick)33–3
- Q3 11:50CONNBobby Puyol 21 Yd Field Goal 26–3
- Q2 0:49CONNNoel Thomas 16 Yd pass from Bryant Shirreffs (Bobby Puyol Kick)23–3
- Q2 1:22CONNBryant Shirreffs 1 Yd Run (Bobby Puyol Kick)16–3
- Q1 6:01CONNTeam Safety 9–3
- Q1 6:02CONNArkeel Newsome 5 Yd Run (Bobby Puyol Kick)7–3
- Q1 10:06UCFMatthew Wright 19 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UCF Elo 1460, CONN Elo 1262 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects UCF -10.3 (76% to win) — 10.3 points clear of UCF's market line of PK. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2015
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#20 of 92 in 2015 by biggest miss · #78 of 108 in 2015 by longest odds.
The 2015 upset archive →UCF leads 6–2 · UCF has won 5 straight · 25% have been one-possession games
| CONN | UCF | |
|---|---|---|
| -3.7 (#78) | CORE overall | -26.9 (#126) |
| -9 / -5 | offense / defense | -17 / +10 |
| 1.37 | points / drive | 1.05 |
| 1.63 | allowed / drive | 3.12 |
| 34% | three-and-outs | 39% |
| -4 | pass over expected | +3 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →