New Mexico vs. Boise State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
UNMTeam statsBOIS
- Q4 2:16BOISJake Roh 28 Yd pass from Brett Rypien (Tyler Rausa Kick)31–24
- Q4 12:09UNMTeriyon Gipson 4 Yd Run (Zack Rogers Kick)31–17
- Q4 13:44UNMRichard McQuarley 1 Yd Run (Zack Rogers Kick)24–17
- Q4 14:48BOISJeremy McNichols 18 Yd pass from Brett Rypien (Tyler Rausa Kick)17–17
- Q3 9:50BOISJeremy McNichols 25 Yd Run (Tyler Rausa Kick)17–10
- Q3 11:21UNMZack Rogers 33 Yd Field Goal 17–3
- Q2 12:28UNMLamar Jordan 19 Yd Run (Zack Rogers Kick)14–3
- Q2 14:51BOISTyler Rausa 32 Yd Field Goal 7–3
- Q1 3:52UNMJhurell Pressley 74 Yd Run (Zack Rogers Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- UNM played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and BOIS did not face the same ones. 3rd & 10.7 vs 3rd & 7.8
- UNM lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 14% explosive on a 27% success rate
- PassAustin Apodaca 8/12, 172 YDS, 1 INT
- RushJhurell Pressley 9 CAR, 132 YDS, 1 TD
- RecDelane Hart-Johnson 1 REC, 81 YDS
- PassBrett Rypien 41/75, 506 YDS, 2 TD, 3 INT
- RushJeremy McNichols 26 CAR, 128 YDS, 1 TD
- RecThomas Sperbeck 20 REC, 281 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUNM up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,299 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 13:44UNM +35%
Richard McQuarley run for 1 yd for a TD, (Zack Rogers KICK)
- Q4 14:48BOIS +29%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Jeremy McNichols for 18 yds for a TD, (Tyler Rausa KICK)
- Q4 12:09UNM +28%
Teriyon Gipson run for 4 yds for a TD, (Zack Rogers KICK)
- Q3 9:50BOIS +24%
Jeremy McNichols run for 25 yds for a TD, (Tyler Rausa KICK)
- Q2 12:28UNM +16%
Lamar Jordan run for 19 yds for a TD, (Zack Rogers KICK)
- Q4 13:03UNM +15%
Austin Apodaca pass complete to Daryl Chestnut for 30 yds to the BoiSt 5 for a 1ST down
FAQ
What was the final score of New Mexico vs. Boise State?
New Mexico 31, Boise State 24.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked BOIS, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| UNM | BOIS | |
|---|---|---|
| 413 | Total yards | 641 |
| 218 | Passing yards | 506 |
| 195 | Rushing yards | 135 |
| 11 | First downs | 40 |
| 0-10 | 3rd down | 9-24 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 2-5 |
| 9/13 | Comp/Att | 41/75 |
| 16.8 | Yards per pass | 6.7 |
| 5.0 | Yards per rush | 3.4 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 4 |
| 16-132 | Penalties | 4-39 |
| 26:51 | Possession | 33:09 |
Costliest call
Q1 11:35 UNM punt on 4th & 1 at UNM 31. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.10 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 2:16BOISJake Roh 28 Yd pass from Brett Rypien (Tyler Rausa Kick)31–24
- Q4 12:09UNMTeriyon Gipson 4 Yd Run (Zack Rogers Kick)31–17
- Q4 13:44UNMRichard McQuarley 1 Yd Run (Zack Rogers Kick)24–17
- Q4 14:48BOISJeremy McNichols 18 Yd pass from Brett Rypien (Tyler Rausa Kick)17–17
- Q3 9:50BOISJeremy McNichols 25 Yd Run (Tyler Rausa Kick)17–10
- Q3 11:21UNMZack Rogers 33 Yd Field Goal 17–3
- Q2 12:28UNMLamar Jordan 19 Yd Run (Zack Rogers Kick)14–3
- Q2 14:51BOISTyler Rausa 32 Yd Field Goal 7–3
- Q1 3:52UNMJhurell Pressley 74 Yd Run (Zack Rogers Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (BOIS Elo 1821, UNM Elo 1220 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects BOIS -26.4 (95% to win) — 4.1 points clear of UNM's market line of -30.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2015
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#9 of 92 in 2015 by biggest miss · #1 of 108 in 2015 by longest odds.
The 2015 upset archive →Boise State leads 14–1 · Boise State has won 8 straight · 13% have been one-possession games
| UNM | BOIS | |
|---|---|---|
| -17.1 (#108) | CORE overall | +8.5 (#39) |
| -7 / +10 | offense / defense | +1 / -8 |
| 2.03 | points / drive | 2.70 |
| 2.49 | allowed / drive | 1.24 |
| 34% | three-and-outs | 22% |
| -22 | pass over expected | +7 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →