Fresno State vs. Hawai'i: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
FRESTeam statsHAW
- Q4 14:49FRESJamire Jordan 64 Yd pass from Zack Greenlee (Kody Kroening Kick)42–14
- Q3 0:51HAWMelvin Davis 1 Yd Run (Rigoberto Sanchez Kick)35–14
- Q3 11:11FRESMarteze Waller 6 Yd pass from Zack Greenlee (Kody Kroening Kick)35–7
- Q2 0:58FRESDa'Mari Scott 25 Yd pass from Zack Greenlee (Kody Kroening Kick)28–7
- Q2 5:44FRESDa'Mari Scott 28 Yd pass from Zack Greenlee (Kody Kroening Kick)21–7
- Q2 11:35FRESChad Olsen 22 Yd pass from Zack Greenlee (Kody Kroening Kick)14–7
- Q2 14:03HAWMakoa Camanse-Stevens 14 Yd pass from Ikaika Woolsey (Rigoberto Sanchez Kick)7–7
- Q1 0:25FRESJosiah Blandin 2 Yd pass from Zack Greenlee (Kody Kroening Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- FRES lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 20% explosive on a 39% success rate
- PassZack Greenlee 20/35, 285 YDS, 6 TD
- RushDustin Garrison 12 CAR, 66 YDS
- RecJamire Jordan 4 REC, 79 YDS, 1 TD
- PassMax Wittek 12/29, 153 YDS, 2 INT
- RushPaul Harris 26 CAR, 126 YDS
- RecMarcus Kemp 5 REC, 105 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsFRES up 21 entering the 4th quarter. Across 671 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 11:35FRES +21%
Zack Greenlee pass complete to Chad Olsen for 22 yds for a TD, (Kody Kroening KICK)
- Q1 0:25FRES +20%
Zack Greenlee pass complete to Josiah Blandin for 2 yds for a TD, (Kody Kroening KICK)
- Q2 14:03HAW +20%
Ikaika Woolsey pass complete to Makoa Camanse-Stevens for 14 yds for a TD, (Rigoberto Sanchez KICK)
- Q2 5:44FRES +17%
Zack Greenlee pass complete to Da'Mari Scott for 28 yds for a TD, (Kody Kroening KICK)
- Q2 0:58FRES +11%
Zack Greenlee pass complete to Da'Mari Scott for 25 yds for a TD, (Kody Kroening KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Fresno State vs. Hawai'i?
Fresno State 42, Hawai'i 14.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked HAW, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| FRES | HAW | |
|---|---|---|
| 455 | Total yards | 437 |
| 285 | Passing yards | 245 |
| 170 | Rushing yards | 192 |
| 29 | First downs | 25 |
| 10-18 | 3rd down | 7-17 |
| 0-3 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 20/35 | Comp/Att | 20/49 |
| 8.1 | Yards per pass | 5.0 |
| 3.3 | Yards per rush | 4.9 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 4 |
| 6-50 | Penalties | 11-132 |
| 37:13 | Possession | 22:47 |
Costliest call
Q2 4:36 FRES punt on 4th & 2 at FRES 44. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.75 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 14:49FRESJamire Jordan 64 Yd pass from Zack Greenlee (Kody Kroening Kick)42–14
- Q3 0:51HAWMelvin Davis 1 Yd Run (Rigoberto Sanchez Kick)35–14
- Q3 11:11FRESMarteze Waller 6 Yd pass from Zack Greenlee (Kody Kroening Kick)35–7
- Q2 0:58FRESDa'Mari Scott 25 Yd pass from Zack Greenlee (Kody Kroening Kick)28–7
- Q2 5:44FRESDa'Mari Scott 28 Yd pass from Zack Greenlee (Kody Kroening Kick)21–7
- Q2 11:35FRESChad Olsen 22 Yd pass from Zack Greenlee (Kody Kroening Kick)14–7
- Q2 14:03HAWMakoa Camanse-Stevens 14 Yd pass from Ikaika Woolsey (Rigoberto Sanchez Kick)7–7
- Q1 0:25FRESJosiah Blandin 2 Yd pass from Zack Greenlee (Kody Kroening Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (HAW Elo 1036, FRES Elo 1062 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects HAW -1.4 (55% to win) — 5.1 points clear of FRES's market line of -6.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2015
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#15 of 92 in 2015 by biggest miss · #76 of 108 in 2015 by longest odds.
The 2015 upset archive →Hawai'i leads 20–19–1 · 40% have been one-possession games
| FRES | HAW | |
|---|---|---|
| -24.9 (#119) | CORE overall | -26.8 (#124) |
| -17 / +8 | offense / defense | -17 / +10 |
| 1.21 | points / drive | 1.14 |
| 2.76 | allowed / drive | 2.88 |
| 35% | three-and-outs | 39% |
| -1 | pass over expected | +2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →