Eastern Michigan vs. Wyoming: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
EMUTeam statsWYO
- Q4 2:46EMUDylan Mulder 41 Yd Field Goal 48–29
- Q3 0:32WYOBrian Hill 5 Yd Run (Tristan Bailey Kick)45–29
- Q3 11:46EMUEddie Daugherty 64 Yd pass from Brogan Roback (Dylan Mulder Kick)45–22
- Q3 13:50WYOBrian Hill 65 Yd Run (Nick Smith Run for Two-Point Conversion)38–22
- Q2 0:17WYOShaun Wick 1 Yd Run (Tristan Bailey Kick)38–14
- Q2 3:46EMUDylan Mulder 39 Yd Field Goal 38–7
- Q2 4:48EMUDarius Jackson 2 Yd Run (Dylan Mulder Kick)35–7
- Q2 9:44EMUShaq Vann 74 Yd Run (Dylan Mulder Kick)28–7
- Q2 14:11EMUDarius Jackson 17 Yd pass from Brogan Roback (Dylan Mulder Kick)21–7
- Q1 1:54EMUSam Browning 3 Yd pass from Brogan Roback (Dylan Mulder Kick)14–7
- Q1 9:19EMUShaq Vann 15 Yd Run (Dylan Mulder Kick)7–7
- Q1 10:15WYOJustice Murphy 5 Yd Run (Tristan Bailey Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassBrogan Roback 17/24, 330 YDS, 3 TD
- RushShaq Vann 16 CAR, 129 YDS, 2 TD
- RecEddie Daugherty 3 REC, 105 YDS, 1 TD
- PassJosh Allen 3/4, 32 YDS
- RushBrian Hill 21 CAR, 242 YDS, 2 TD
- RecJacob Hollister 3 REC, 26 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsEMU up 16 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,243 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 14:11EMU +22%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Darius Jackson for 17 yds for a TD, (Dylan Mulder KICK)
- Q2 9:44EMU +19%
Shaq Vann run for 74 yds for a TD, (Dylan Mulder KICK)
- Q1 1:54EMU +19%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Sam Browning for 3 yds for a TD, (Dylan Mulder KICK)
- Q3 11:46EMU +16%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Eddie Daugherty for 64 yds for a TD, (Dylan Mulder KICK)
- Q3 13:50WYO +14%
Brian Hill run for 65 yds for a TD, (N. Smith Run For Two-point Conversion)
- Q1 9:19EMU +11%
Shaq Vann run for 15 yds for a TD, (Dylan Mulder KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Eastern Michigan vs. Wyoming?
Eastern Michigan 48, Wyoming 29.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked WYO, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| EMU | WYO | |
|---|---|---|
| 506 | Total yards | 462 |
| 330 | Passing yards | 32 |
| 176 | Rushing yards | 430 |
| 19 | First downs | 26 |
| 7-12 | 3rd down | 6-15 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 3-4 |
| 18/25 | Comp/Att | 6/17 |
| 13.2 | Yards per pass | 1.9 |
| 4.8 | Yards per rush | 7.4 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 4-45 | Penalties | 4-30 |
| 26:44 | Possession | 33:16 |
Costliest call
Q4 13:40 WYO go for it on 4th & 9 at EMU 12. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.76 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 2:46EMUDylan Mulder 41 Yd Field Goal 48–29
- Q3 0:32WYOBrian Hill 5 Yd Run (Tristan Bailey Kick)45–29
- Q3 11:46EMUEddie Daugherty 64 Yd pass from Brogan Roback (Dylan Mulder Kick)45–22
- Q3 13:50WYOBrian Hill 65 Yd Run (Nick Smith Run for Two-Point Conversion)38–22
- Q2 0:17WYOShaun Wick 1 Yd Run (Tristan Bailey Kick)38–14
- Q2 3:46EMUDylan Mulder 39 Yd Field Goal 38–7
- Q2 4:48EMUDarius Jackson 2 Yd Run (Dylan Mulder Kick)35–7
- Q2 9:44EMUShaq Vann 74 Yd Run (Dylan Mulder Kick)28–7
- Q2 14:11EMUDarius Jackson 17 Yd pass from Brogan Roback (Dylan Mulder Kick)21–7
- Q1 1:54EMUSam Browning 3 Yd pass from Brogan Roback (Dylan Mulder Kick)14–7
- Q1 9:19EMUShaq Vann 15 Yd Run (Dylan Mulder Kick)7–7
- Q1 10:15WYOJustice Murphy 5 Yd Run (Tristan Bailey Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (WYO Elo 1294, EMU Elo 1037 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects WYO -12.7 (80% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2015
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#19 of 92 in 2015 by biggest miss · #31 of 108 in 2015 by longest odds.
The 2015 upset archive →| EMU | WYO | |
|---|---|---|
| -25.6 (#121) | CORE overall | -16.1 (#105) |
| -6 / +19 | offense / defense | -5 / +11 |
| 2.09 | points / drive | 1.62 |
| 3.44 | allowed / drive | 3.04 |
| 30% | three-and-outs | 31% |
| +0 | pass over expected | -13 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →