North Carolina vs. Duke: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
UNCTeam statsDUKE
- Q4 6:13UNCMarquise Williams 16 Yd Run (Thomas Moore Kick)45–20
- Q4 8:21DUKEThomas Sirk 1 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)38–20
- Q3 2:26DUKEJamison Crowder 18 Yd pass from Anthony Boone (Ross Martin Kick)38–14
- Q3 6:23UNCThomas Moore 30 Yd Field Goal 38–7
- Q3 9:10UNCT.J. Logan 1 Yd Run (Thomas Moore Kick)35–7
- Q2 13:02UNCMarquise Williams 1 Yd Run (Thomas Moore Kick)28–7
- Q1 1:26UNCMack Hollins 1 Yd pass from Marquise Williams (Thomas Moore Kick)21–7
- Q1 4:22DUKEIssac Blakeney 10 Yd pass from Anthony Boone (Ross Martin Kick)14–7
- Q1 7:49UNCTim Scott 10 Yd Fumble Return (Thomas Moore Kick)14–0
- Q1 8:34UNCQuinshad Davis 3 Yd pass from Marquise Williams (Thomas Moore Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassMarquise Williams 18/27, 276 YDS, 2 TD
- RushT.J. Logan 18 CAR, 116 YDS, 1 TD
- RecRyan Switzer 3 REC, 109 YDS
- PassAnthony Boone 22/40, 262 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushAnthony Boone 14 CAR, 36 YDS
- RecJohnell Barnes 6 REC, 85 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUNC up 24 entering the 4th quarter. Across 555 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 1:26UNC +19%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Mack Hollins for 1 yd for a TD, (Thomas Moore KICK)
- Q1 7:49UNC +19%
Anthony Boone sacked for a loss of 1 yd by D. Lawrence and N. Jones, fumbled, Tim Scott 10 Yd Fumble Return for TD (Thomas Moore Kick)
- Q1 8:34UNC +19%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Quinshad Davis for 3 yds for a TD, (Thomas Moore KICK)
- Q1 4:22DUKE +18%
Anthony Boone pass complete to Issac Blakeney for 10 yds for a TD, (Ross Martin KICK)
- Q2 13:02UNC +14%
Marquise Williams run for 1 yd for a TD, (Thomas Moore KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of North Carolina vs. Duke?
North Carolina 45, Duke 20.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked DUKE, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| UNC | DUKE | |
|---|---|---|
| 592 | Total yards | 378 |
| 276 | Passing yards | 262 |
| 316 | Rushing yards | 116 |
| 28 | First downs | 21 |
| 4-12 | 3rd down | 10-19 |
| 2-2 | 4th down | 2-3 |
| 18/27 | Comp/Att | 22/40 |
| 10.2 | Yards per pass | 6.6 |
| 5.5 | Yards per rush | 3.1 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 9-85 | Penalties | 5-35 |
| 30:37 | Possession | 28:34 |
Costliest call
Q2 9:42 DUKE punt on 4th & 2 at DUKE 15. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.28 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 6:13UNCMarquise Williams 16 Yd Run (Thomas Moore Kick)45–20
- Q4 8:21DUKEThomas Sirk 1 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)38–20
- Q3 2:26DUKEJamison Crowder 18 Yd pass from Anthony Boone (Ross Martin Kick)38–14
- Q3 6:23UNCThomas Moore 30 Yd Field Goal 38–7
- Q3 9:10UNCT.J. Logan 1 Yd Run (Thomas Moore Kick)35–7
- Q2 13:02UNCMarquise Williams 1 Yd Run (Thomas Moore Kick)28–7
- Q1 1:26UNCMack Hollins 1 Yd pass from Marquise Williams (Thomas Moore Kick)21–7
- Q1 4:22DUKEIssac Blakeney 10 Yd pass from Anthony Boone (Ross Martin Kick)14–7
- Q1 7:49UNCTim Scott 10 Yd Fumble Return (Thomas Moore Kick)14–0
- Q1 8:34UNCQuinshad Davis 3 Yd pass from Marquise Williams (Thomas Moore Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (DUKE Elo 1672, UNC Elo 1533 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects DUKE -8 (71% to win) — 3.0 points clear of DUKE's market line of -5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2014
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#22 of 94 in 2014 by biggest miss · #69 of 94 in 2014 by longest odds.
The 2014 upset archive →North Carolina leads 63–38–4 · Duke has won 2 straight · 51% have been one-possession games
| UNC | DUKE | |
|---|---|---|
| 2.21 | points / drive | 2.17 |
| 3.01 | allowed / drive | 1.62 |
| 22% | three-and-outs | 26% |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →