Baylor vs. Oklahoma: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
BAYTeam statsOU
- Q4 7:37BAYShock Linwood 15 Yd Run (Chris Callahan Kick)48–14
- Q4 12:38BAYChris Callahan 24 Yd Field Goal 41–14
- Q3 8:18BAYShock Linwood 3 Yd Run (Chris Callahan Kick)38–14
- Q3 12:10BAYCorey Coleman 5 Yd Run (Chris Callahan Kick)31–14
- Q2 3:38BAYDevin Chafin 2 Yd Run (Chris Callahan Kick)24–14
- Q2 10:50BAYDevin Chafin 1 Yd Run (Chris Callahan Kick)17–14
- Q2 12:56BAYCorey Coleman 33 Yd pass from Bryce Petty (Chris Callahan Kick)10–14
- Q1 0:37OUDurron Neal 9 Yd pass from Trevor Knight (Michael Hunnicutt Kick)3–14
- Q1 5:07OUMichiah Quick 8 Yd pass from Trevor Knight (Michael Hunnicutt Kick)3–7
- Q1 8:20BAYChris Callahan 34 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- OU played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and BAY did not face the same ones. 3rd & 7.6 vs 3rd & 5.0
- PassBryce Petty 32/42, 387 YDS, 1 TD
- RushShock Linwood 23 CAR, 87 YDS, 2 TD
- RecCorey Coleman 15 REC, 224 YDS, 1 TD
- PassTrevor Knight 12/27, 146 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushAlex Ross 6 CAR, 71 YDS
- RecMichiah Quick 6 REC, 94 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsBAY up 24 entering the 4th quarter. Across 555 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 10:50BAY +24%
Devin Chafin run for 1 yd for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK)
- Q2 3:38BAY +21%
Devin Chafin run for 2 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK)
- Q1 5:07OU +19%
Trevor Knight pass complete to Michiah Quick for 8 yds for a TD, (Michael Hunnicutt KICK)
- Q2 12:56BAY +18%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Corey Coleman for 33 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK)
- Q1 0:37OU +16%
Trevor Knight pass complete to Durron Neal for 9 yds for a TD, (Michael Hunnicutt KICK)
- Q3 12:10BAY +13%
Corey Coleman run for 5 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Baylor vs. Oklahoma?
Baylor 48, Oklahoma 14.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked OU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| BAY | OU | |
|---|---|---|
| 544 | Total yards | 319 |
| 396 | Passing yards | 148 |
| 148 | Rushing yards | 171 |
| 31 | First downs | 13 |
| 8-19 | 3rd down | 4-13 |
| 4-4 | 4th down | 0-2 |
| 33/43 | Comp/Att | 13/29 |
| 9.2 | Yards per pass | 5.1 |
| 2.8 | Yards per rush | 5.2 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 7-40 | Penalties | 7-59 |
| 35:23 | Possession | 24:37 |
Costliest call
Q4 12:38 BAY field goal on 4th & 2 at OU 7. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.61 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 7:37BAYShock Linwood 15 Yd Run (Chris Callahan Kick)48–14
- Q4 12:38BAYChris Callahan 24 Yd Field Goal 41–14
- Q3 8:18BAYShock Linwood 3 Yd Run (Chris Callahan Kick)38–14
- Q3 12:10BAYCorey Coleman 5 Yd Run (Chris Callahan Kick)31–14
- Q2 3:38BAYDevin Chafin 2 Yd Run (Chris Callahan Kick)24–14
- Q2 10:50BAYDevin Chafin 1 Yd Run (Chris Callahan Kick)17–14
- Q2 12:56BAYCorey Coleman 33 Yd pass from Bryce Petty (Chris Callahan Kick)10–14
- Q1 0:37OUDurron Neal 9 Yd pass from Trevor Knight (Michael Hunnicutt Kick)3–14
- Q1 5:07OUMichiah Quick 8 Yd pass from Trevor Knight (Michael Hunnicutt Kick)3–7
- Q1 8:20BAYChris Callahan 34 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (OU Elo 1970, BAY Elo 1977 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects OU -2.1 (57% to win) — 2.4 points clear of BAY's market line of -4.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2014
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#9 of 94 in 2014 by biggest miss · #81 of 94 in 2014 by longest odds.
The 2014 upset archive →Oklahoma leads 27–5 · Baylor has won 2 straight · 28% have been one-possession games
| BAY | OU | |
|---|---|---|
| 3.35 | points / drive | 2.42 |
| 1.94 | allowed / drive | 1.56 |
| 17% | three-and-outs | 29% |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →