Penn State vs. Indiana: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
PSUTeam statsIU
- Q4 5:40PSUPENN ST rush for a safety.24–44
- Q4 7:44PSUPENN ST pass complete for a touchdown.24–42
- Q4 7:44PSUPENN ST Extra point GOOD.24–42
- Q4 10:30IUINDIANA Extra point GOOD.17–42
- Q4 10:30IUINDIANA rush for a touchdown.17–41
- Q4 10:42IUINDIANA Extra point GOOD.17–35
- Q4 10:42IUINDIANA pass complete for a touchdown.17–34
- Q4 14:10IUINDIANA Extra point GOOD.17–28
- Q4 14:10IUINDIANA rush for a touchdown.17–27
- Q3 2:04PSUPENN ST 30 yard field goal GOOD.17–21
- Q3 7:56IUINDIANA2-point conversion rush GOOD.14–21
- Q3 7:56IUINDIANA rush for a touchdown.14–19
- Q3 9:18PSUPENN ST Extra point GOOD.14–13
- Q3 9:18PSUPENN ST pass complete for a touchdown.13–13
- Q2 0:00IUINDIANA 27 yard field goal GOOD.7–13
- Q2 6:43IUINDIANA 24 yard field goal GOOD.7–10
- Q2 9:16PSUPENN ST Extra point GOOD.7–7
- Q2 9:16PSUPENN ST pass complete for a touchdown.7–7
- Q1 3:05IUINDIANA Extra point GOOD.0–7
- Q1 3:05IUINDIANA pass complete for a touchdown.0–7
How the model called it
- PassChristian Hackenberg 30/55, 340 YDS, 3 TD
- RushZach Zwinak 17 CAR, 72 YDS
- RecAllen Robinson 12 REC, 173 YDS, 2 TD
- PassNate Sudfeld 23/38, 321 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushTevin Coleman 20 CAR, 92 YDS, 1 TD
- RecCody Latimer 9 REC, 140 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsIU up 4 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,449 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 14:10IU +28%
Tre Roberson rush for 2 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
- Q3 7:56IU +24%
Tevin Coleman rush for 44 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
- Q2 9:16PSU +22%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Allen Robinson for 46 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
- Q3 9:18PSU +20%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Allen Robinson for 26 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
- Q1 3:05IU +18%
Nate Sudfeld pass complete to Isaiah Roundtree for 5 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
- Q4 15:00IU +16%
Nate Sudfeld pass incomplete to Cody Latimer, broken up by Jordan Lucas
FAQ
What was the final score of Penn State vs. Indiana?
Penn State 24, Indiana 44.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked PSU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| PSU | IU | |
|---|---|---|
| 410 | Total yards | 486 |
| 340 | Passing yards | 336 |
| 70 | Rushing yards | 150 |
| 27 | First downs | 23 |
| 11-22 | 3rd down | 4-15 |
| 1-5 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 30/55 | Comp/Att | 24/39 |
| 6.2 | Yards per pass | 8.6 |
| 1.8 | Yards per rush | 3.7 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 5-20 | Penalties | 5-42 |
| 35:17 | Possession | 24:49 |
Costliest call
Q2 1:48 PSU field goal on 4th & 2 at IU 25. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.63 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 5:40PSUPENN ST rush for a safety.24–44
- Q4 7:44PSUPENN ST pass complete for a touchdown.24–42
- Q4 7:44PSUPENN ST Extra point GOOD.24–42
- Q4 10:30IUINDIANA Extra point GOOD.17–42
- Q4 10:30IUINDIANA rush for a touchdown.17–41
- Q4 10:42IUINDIANA Extra point GOOD.17–35
- Q4 10:42IUINDIANA pass complete for a touchdown.17–34
- Q4 14:10IUINDIANA Extra point GOOD.17–28
- Q4 14:10IUINDIANA rush for a touchdown.17–27
- Q3 2:04PSUPENN ST 30 yard field goal GOOD.17–21
- Q3 7:56IUINDIANA2-point conversion rush GOOD.14–21
- Q3 7:56IUINDIANA rush for a touchdown.14–19
- Q3 9:18PSUPENN ST Extra point GOOD.14–13
- Q3 9:18PSUPENN ST pass complete for a touchdown.13–13
- Q2 0:00IUINDIANA 27 yard field goal GOOD.7–13
- Q2 6:43IUINDIANA 24 yard field goal GOOD.7–10
- Q2 9:16PSUPENN ST Extra point GOOD.7–7
- Q2 9:16PSUPENN ST pass complete for a touchdown.7–7
- Q1 3:05IUINDIANA Extra point GOOD.0–7
- Q1 3:05IUINDIANA pass complete for a touchdown.0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (IU Elo 1435, PSU Elo 1783 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects IU +11.5 (23% to win) — 8.0 points clear of PSU's market line of +3.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2013
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#51 of 93 in 2013 by biggest miss · #73 of 93 in 2013 by longest odds.
The 2013 upset archive →Penn State leads 25–3 · 39% have been one-possession games
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
Create a free account →You get Pro free for 6 months. No card required.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →