Kansas State vs. Texas Tech: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
KSUTeam statsTTU
- Q4 7:08TTUTEXAS TECH Extra point GOOD.49–26
- Q4 7:08TTUTEXAS TECH rush for a touchdown.49–26
- Q4 14:07KSUKANSAS ST Extra point GOOD.49–19
- Q4 14:07KSUKANSAS ST interception return for a touchdown.48–19
- Q4 14:56KSUKANSAS ST Extra point GOOD.42–19
- Q4 14:56KSUKANSAS ST rush for a touchdown.41–19
- Q3 3:01TTUTEXAS TECH 31 yard field goal GOOD.35–19
- Q3 9:34TTUTEXAS TECH rush for a touchdown.35–16
- Q2 1:10KSUKANSAS ST Extra point GOOD.35–10
- Q2 1:10KSUKANSAS ST pass complete for a touchdown.34–10
- Q2 5:14KSUKANSAS ST Extra point GOOD.28–10
- Q2 5:14KSUKANSAS ST rush for a touchdown.27–10
- Q2 10:22KSUKANSAS ST rush for a touchdown.21–10
- Q2 10:22KSUKANSAS ST Extra point GOOD.21–10
- Q1 1:26KSUKANSAS ST Extra point GOOD.14–10
- Q1 1:26KSUKANSAS ST rush for a touchdown.13–10
- Q1 6:49TTUTEXAS TECH Extra point GOOD.7–10
- Q1 6:49TTUTEXAS TECH pass complete for a touchdown.7–9
- Q1 10:55KSUKANSAS ST Extra point GOOD.7–3
- Q1 10:55KSUKANSAS ST rush for a touchdown.6–3
- Q1 11:42TTUTEXAS TECH 23 yard field goal GOOD.0–3
How the model called it
- PassJake Waters 6/9, 65 YDS, 1 TD
- RushJohn Hubert 23 CAR, 157 YDS, 1 TD
- RecTyler Lockett 4 REC, 44 YDS
- PassBaker Mayfield 34/44, 276 YDS, 2 INT
- RushKenny Williams 15 CAR, 66 YDS
- RecEric Ward 11 REC, 107 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsKSU up 16 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,243 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 10:22KSU +16%
Daniel Sams rush for 5 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
- Q1 6:49TTU +16%
Davis Webb pass complete to Eric Ward for 2 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
- Q1 10:55KSU +15%
John Hubert rush for 63 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
- Q1 1:26KSU +14%
Jake Waters rush for 1 yard for a TOUCHDOWN
- Q2 5:14KSU +8%
Jake Waters rush for 13 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
FAQ
What was the final score of Kansas State vs. Texas Tech?
Kansas State 49, Texas Tech 26.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (KSU) was correct.
| KSU | TTU | |
|---|---|---|
| 367 | Total yards | 459 |
| 76 | Passing yards | 354 |
| 291 | Rushing yards | 105 |
| 20 | First downs | 30 |
| 5-9 | 3rd down | 9-17 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 7/11 | Comp/Att | 47/64 |
| 6.9 | Yards per pass | 5.5 |
| 6.5 | Yards per rush | 3.3 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 6-62 | Penalties | 10-80 |
| 29:39 | Possession | 30:21 |
Costliest call
Q4 4:13 KSU punt on 4th & 14 at TTU 41. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.30 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 7:08TTUTEXAS TECH Extra point GOOD.49–26
- Q4 7:08TTUTEXAS TECH rush for a touchdown.49–26
- Q4 14:07KSUKANSAS ST Extra point GOOD.49–19
- Q4 14:07KSUKANSAS ST interception return for a touchdown.48–19
- Q4 14:56KSUKANSAS ST Extra point GOOD.42–19
- Q4 14:56KSUKANSAS ST rush for a touchdown.41–19
- Q3 3:01TTUTEXAS TECH 31 yard field goal GOOD.35–19
- Q3 9:34TTUTEXAS TECH rush for a touchdown.35–16
- Q2 1:10KSUKANSAS ST Extra point GOOD.35–10
- Q2 1:10KSUKANSAS ST pass complete for a touchdown.34–10
- Q2 5:14KSUKANSAS ST Extra point GOOD.28–10
- Q2 5:14KSUKANSAS ST rush for a touchdown.27–10
- Q2 10:22KSUKANSAS ST rush for a touchdown.21–10
- Q2 10:22KSUKANSAS ST Extra point GOOD.21–10
- Q1 1:26KSUKANSAS ST Extra point GOOD.14–10
- Q1 1:26KSUKANSAS ST rush for a touchdown.13–10
- Q1 6:49TTUTEXAS TECH Extra point GOOD.7–10
- Q1 6:49TTUTEXAS TECH pass complete for a touchdown.7–9
- Q1 10:55KSUKANSAS ST Extra point GOOD.7–3
- Q1 10:55KSUKANSAS ST rush for a touchdown.6–3
- Q1 11:42TTUTEXAS TECH 23 yard field goal GOOD.0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (TTU Elo 1673, KSU Elo 1822 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects TTU +3.6 (42% to win) — 6.6 points clear of KSU's market line of -3. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2013
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#35 of 93 in 2013 by biggest miss · #71 of 93 in 2013 by longest odds.
The 2013 upset archive →Kansas State leads 15–10 · 32% have been one-possession games
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →