Houston vs. Rutgers: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
HOUTeam statsRUTG
- Q4 14:23HOUHOUSTON Extra point GOOD.49–14
- Q4 14:23HOUHOUSTON pass complete for a touchdown.48–14
- Q3 3:34HOUHOUSTON Extra point GOOD.42–14
- Q3 3:34HOUHOUSTON rush for a touchdown.41–14
- Q3 7:27HOUHOUSTON Extra point GOOD.35–14
- Q3 7:27HOUHOUSTON pass complete for a touchdown.34–14
- Q2 5:54HOUHOUSTON Extra point GOOD.28–14
- Q2 5:54HOUHOUSTON pass complete for a touchdown.27–14
- Q2 6:46HOUHOUSTON Extra point GOOD.21–14
- Q2 6:46HOUHOUSTON pass complete for a touchdown.20–14
- Q2 7:03RUTGRUTGERS Extra point GOOD.14–14
- Q2 7:03RUTGRUTGERS rush for a touchdown.14–13
- Q2 11:59HOUHOUSTON Extra point GOOD.14–7
- Q2 11:59HOUHOUSTON rush for a touchdown.13–7
- Q1 0:46HOUHOUSTON Extra point GOOD.7–7
- Q1 0:46HOUHOUSTON pass complete for a touchdown.6–7
- Q1 3:22RUTGRUTGERS Extra point GOOD.0–7
- Q1 3:22RUTGRUTGERS rush for a touchdown.0–6
How the model called it
- PassJohn O'Korn 24/30, 364 YDS, 5 TD
- RushGreg Ward 11 CAR, 91 YDS, 1 TD
- RecDeontay Greenberry 8 REC, 168 YDS, 3 TD
- PassGary Nova 7/15, 138 YDS, 3 INT
- RushJustin Goodwin 31 CAR, 161 YDS, 2 TD
- RecCarlton Agudosi 2 REC, 59 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsHOU up 28 entering the 4th quarter. Across 468 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 11:59HOU +21%
HOUSTON penalty 15 yard Personal Foul on Kenneth Farrow accepted
- Q2 6:46HOU +20%
John O'Korn pass complete to Deontay Greenberry for 83 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
- Q2 5:54HOU +19%
John O'Korn pass complete to Demarcus Ayers for 26 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
- Q2 7:03RUTG +18%
Justin Goodwin rush for 14 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
- Q1 0:46HOU +15%
John O'Korn pass complete to Deontay Greenberry for 10 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
- Q1 3:22RUTG +15%
Justin Goodwin rush for 5 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
FAQ
What was the final score of Houston vs. Rutgers?
Houston 49, Rutgers 14.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked RUTG, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| HOU | RUTG | |
|---|---|---|
| 611 | Total yards | 420 |
| 400 | Passing yards | 216 |
| 211 | Rushing yards | 204 |
| 26 | First downs | 22 |
| 7-12 | 3rd down | 8-15 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 2-2 |
| 28/35 | Comp/Att | 18/31 |
| 11.4 | Yards per pass | 7.0 |
| 5.6 | Yards per rush | 5.0 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 6 |
| 11-100 | Penalties | 4-38 |
| 28:22 | Possession | 31:26 |
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 14:23HOUHOUSTON Extra point GOOD.49–14
- Q4 14:23HOUHOUSTON pass complete for a touchdown.48–14
- Q3 3:34HOUHOUSTON Extra point GOOD.42–14
- Q3 3:34HOUHOUSTON rush for a touchdown.41–14
- Q3 7:27HOUHOUSTON Extra point GOOD.35–14
- Q3 7:27HOUHOUSTON pass complete for a touchdown.34–14
- Q2 5:54HOUHOUSTON Extra point GOOD.28–14
- Q2 5:54HOUHOUSTON pass complete for a touchdown.27–14
- Q2 6:46HOUHOUSTON Extra point GOOD.21–14
- Q2 6:46HOUHOUSTON pass complete for a touchdown.20–14
- Q2 7:03RUTGRUTGERS Extra point GOOD.14–14
- Q2 7:03RUTGRUTGERS rush for a touchdown.14–13
- Q2 11:59HOUHOUSTON Extra point GOOD.14–7
- Q2 11:59HOUHOUSTON rush for a touchdown.13–7
- Q1 0:46HOUHOUSTON Extra point GOOD.7–7
- Q1 0:46HOUHOUSTON pass complete for a touchdown.6–7
- Q1 3:22RUTGRUTGERS Extra point GOOD.0–7
- Q1 3:22RUTGRUTGERS rush for a touchdown.0–6
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (RUTG Elo 1567, HOU Elo 1540 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects RUTG -3.5 (60% to win) — 3.5 points clear of HOU's market line of -7. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2013
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#4 of 93 in 2013 by biggest miss · #43 of 93 in 2013 by longest odds.
The 2013 upset archive →Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →