Bowling Green vs. Northern Illinois: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
BGSUTeam statsNIU
- Q4 0:14NIUNORTHERNIL Extra point GOOD.47–27
- Q4 0:14NIUNORTHERNIL rush for a touchdown.47–26
- Q4 2:44BGSUBOWLING GREEN Extra point GOOD.47–20
- Q4 2:44BGSUBOWLING GREEN rush for a touchdown.46–20
- Q4 10:17BGSUBOWLING GREEN pass complete for a touchdown.40–20
- Q4 14:50BGSUBOWLING GREEN 52 yard field goal GOOD.34–20
- Q3 12:23NIUNORTHERNIL Extra point GOOD.31–20
- Q3 12:23NIUNORTHERNIL rush for a touchdown.31–19
- Q2 0:13BGSUBOWLING GREEN Extra point GOOD.31–13
- Q2 0:13BGSUBOWLING GREEN pass complete for a touchdown.30–13
- Q2 5:39BGSUBOWLING GREEN Extra point GOOD.24–13
- Q2 5:39BGSUBOWLING GREEN pass complete for a touchdown.24–13
- Q2 11:22NIUNORTHERNIL 45 yard field goal GOOD.17–13
- Q2 14:51NIUNORTHERNIL 51 yard field goal GOOD.17–10
- Q1 2:32BGSUBOWLING GREEN Extra point GOOD.17–7
- Q1 2:32BGSUBOWLING GREEN pass complete for a touchdown.17–7
- Q1 6:49BGSUBOWLING GREEN 26 yard field goal GOOD.10–7
- Q1 9:08NIUNORTHERNIL Extra point GOOD.7–7
- Q1 9:08NIUNORTHERNIL pass complete for a touchdown.7–7
- Q1 12:27BGSUBOWLING GREEN Extra point GOOD.7–0
- Q1 12:27BGSUBOWLING GREEN pass complete for a touchdown.7–0
How the model called it
- PassMatt Quinn Johnson 21/27, 393 YDS, 5 TD
- RushTravis Calton Greene 26 CAR, 133 YDS, 1 TD
- RecRonnie Moore 4 REC, 145 YDS, 1 TD
- PassJordan Lynch 21/40, 219 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- RushJordan Lynch 26 CAR, 126 YDS, 2 TD
- RecJuwan Brescacin 6 REC, 71 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsBGSU up 14 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,028 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 5:39BGSU +20%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Heath Jackson for 22 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
- Q1 2:32BGSU +18%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Ronnie Moore for 36 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
- Q1 9:08NIU +18%
Jordan Lynch pass complete to Juwan Brescacin for 14 yards for a TOUCHDOWN, BOWLING GREEN penalty holding declined
- Q2 15:00NIU +15%
Jordan Lynch pass incomplete to Juwan Brescacin, NORTHERNIL penalty ineligible downfield on pass declined
- Q3 12:23NIU +9%
Jordan Lynch rush for 8 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
- Q2 11:13BGSU +8%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Alex Bayer for 17 yards to the NoIll 37, tackled by Ken Bishop and Marlon Moore for a 1ST down
FAQ
What was the final score of Bowling Green vs. Northern Illinois?
Bowling Green 47, Northern Illinois 27.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked NIU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| BGSU | NIU | |
|---|---|---|
| 574 | Total yards | 454 |
| 393 | Passing yards | 219 |
| 181 | Rushing yards | 235 |
| 27 | First downs | 29 |
| 4-10 | 3rd down | 8-15 |
| 2-2 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 21/27 | Comp/Att | 21/40 |
| 14.6 | Yards per pass | 5.5 |
| 4.5 | Yards per rush | 5.6 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 8-60 | Penalties | 4-20 |
| 34:10 | Possession | 24:58 |
Costliest call
Q1 5:14 NIU punt on 4th & 1 at NIU 34. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.62 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:14NIUNORTHERNIL Extra point GOOD.47–27
- Q4 0:14NIUNORTHERNIL rush for a touchdown.47–26
- Q4 2:44BGSUBOWLING GREEN Extra point GOOD.47–20
- Q4 2:44BGSUBOWLING GREEN rush for a touchdown.46–20
- Q4 10:17BGSUBOWLING GREEN pass complete for a touchdown.40–20
- Q4 14:50BGSUBOWLING GREEN 52 yard field goal GOOD.34–20
- Q3 12:23NIUNORTHERNIL Extra point GOOD.31–20
- Q3 12:23NIUNORTHERNIL rush for a touchdown.31–19
- Q2 0:13BGSUBOWLING GREEN Extra point GOOD.31–13
- Q2 0:13BGSUBOWLING GREEN pass complete for a touchdown.30–13
- Q2 5:39BGSUBOWLING GREEN Extra point GOOD.24–13
- Q2 5:39BGSUBOWLING GREEN pass complete for a touchdown.24–13
- Q2 11:22NIUNORTHERNIL 45 yard field goal GOOD.17–13
- Q2 14:51NIUNORTHERNIL 51 yard field goal GOOD.17–10
- Q1 2:32BGSUBOWLING GREEN Extra point GOOD.17–7
- Q1 2:32BGSUBOWLING GREEN pass complete for a touchdown.17–7
- Q1 6:49BGSUBOWLING GREEN 26 yard field goal GOOD.10–7
- Q1 9:08NIUNORTHERNIL Extra point GOOD.7–7
- Q1 9:08NIUNORTHERNIL pass complete for a touchdown.7–7
- Q1 12:27BGSUBOWLING GREEN Extra point GOOD.7–0
- Q1 12:27BGSUBOWLING GREEN pass complete for a touchdown.7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (NIU Elo 1791, BGSU Elo 1760 for reference), on a neutral field. That projects NIU -1.2 (55% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2013
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#56 of 93 in 2013 by biggest miss · #87 of 93 in 2013 by longest odds.
The 2013 upset archive →The series is level at 12–12 · Northern Illinois has won 4 straight · 33% have been one-possession games
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →