#31Tyler Lavine

RB·SMU·20222.2 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Tyler Lavine is a Explosive Back for SMU. Tyler's 2022 season ranks in the 38th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 149 plays — a developing rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Tyler Lavine's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2022 Production

Rushing

642 Rush yards10 Rush TD142 Carries4.5 Yards/carry

Receiving

16 Receptions122 Rec yards0 Rec TD7.6 Yards/rec

Returns

1 Kick returns9 KR yards0 KR TD

Performance Analysis · 2022 · vs RB peers

Efficiency38
Volume54
Explosiveness30
Consistency59
Receiving39

Player type

Explosive Back

Elite per-carry efficiency — breaks big runs and creates chunk plays at a top rate while in a limited role.

Big-play threatHigh EPA per carryCapitalises on opportunities

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)38th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency59th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs RB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸4 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.35 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 2.23 EPA/play in Wk 1 vs North Texas (SP+ -2).

NIL Market Tier· 2022

On3 valuation ↗

Contributor

Rotational contributor. Smaller collective or local deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Travis Etienne	Clemson	2019	213	0.470	4.7	100.1
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2016	288	0.340	3.9	97.9
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2017	240	0.410	5.2	98.4
Clyde Edwards-Helaire	LSU	2019	216	0.490	5.0	105.8
James Flanders	Tulsa	2016	266	0.390	4.9	103.7

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	@North Texas	W48-10	-1.5	1	5	5.0	1	—	—	—	2.23
2	vsLamar	W45-16	—	2	9	4.5	0	—	—	—	-0.02
3	@Maryland	L27-34	11.2	1	2	2.0	0	—	—	—	-0.20
7	vsNavy	W40-34	-7.2	6	28	4.7	0	—	—	—	0.17
8	vsCincinnati	L27-29	13.1	7	31	4.4	1	—	—	—	0.98
9	@Tulsa	W45-34	-6.1	17	72	4.2	3	—	—	—	0.46
10	vsHouston	W77-63	4.5	25	146	5.8	1	2	12	0	0.23
11	@South Florida	W41-23	-17.0	17	112	6.6	1	—	—	—	0.52
12	@Tulane	L24-59	12.4	18	82	4.6	0	7	62	0	0.23
13	vsMemphis	W34-31	6.8	25	64	2.6	2	3	23	0	0.20
1	vsBYU	L23-24	-1.4	23	91	4.0	1	4	25	0	0.22

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

19.0%

Passing plays

4.1%

Rushing plays

34.4%

Standard downs

22.6%

Passing downs

10.5%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.28
Passing downs: 0.45
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.56 / 0.28

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2022 · 11 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.