#25Tyler Gaffney

RB·Stanford·20132.9 pts line value1st Round

Tyler Gaffney is a Featured Back for Stanford. Tyler's 2013 season ranks in the 50th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 309 plays — a average rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Tyler Gaffney's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2013 Production

Rushing

1709 Rush yards21 Rush TD330 Carries5.2 Yards/carry

Receiving

15 Receptions86 Rec yards1 Rec TD5.7 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2013 · vs RB peers

Efficiency50
Volume100
Explosiveness44
Consistency46
Receiving20

Player type

Featured Back

The centerpiece of the run game — high carry volume, used in early downs and goal-line, true workhorse role.

Primary ball carrierHigh volumeGoal-line threat

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)50th %ile · average

Game-to-game consistency46th %ile · average

Key findings

▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used RBs by play share.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.19 EPA/play decline from first to second half.

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Donnel Pumphrey	San Diego State	2016	344	0.320	4.2	110.1
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2016	288	0.340	3.9	97.9
Eno Benjamin	Arizona State	2018	316	0.330	4.6	104.3
Dalvin Cook	Florida State	2016	292	0.340	4.3	99.3
Breece Hall	Iowa State	2020	301	0.340	4.5	102.3

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
2	vsSan José State	W34-13	-5.1	20	104	5.2	2	2	20	0	0.35
3	@Army	W34-20	-24.6	20	132	6.6	1	1	23	1	0.27
4	vsArizona State	W42-28	17.5	18	87	4.8	2	1	4	0	0.17
5	@Washington State	W55-17	8.2	14	54	3.9	0	1	1	0	0.13
6	vsWashington	W31-28	20.5	20	85	4.3	1	2	12	0	-0.05
7	@Utah	L21-27	11.8	16	108	6.8	1	1	3	0	0.28
8	vsUCLA	W24-10	20.0	36	171	4.8	2	1	3	0	0.22
9	@Oregon State	W20-12	11.9	22	145	6.6	3	—	—	—	0.17
11	vsOregon	W26-20	28.7	45	157	3.5	1	1	15	0	0.11
12	@USC	L17-20	22.5	24	158	6.6	2	1	3	0	-0.01
13	vsCalifornia	W63-13	-8.7	16	95	5.9	1	1	0	0	-0.20
14	vsNotre Dame	W27-20	13.2	33	189	5.7	1	1	6	0	0.33
15	@Arizona State	W38-14	17.5	22	133	6.0	3	1	-2	0	-0.10
1	vsMichigan State	L20-24	19.7	24	91	3.8	1	1	-2	0	-0.23

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

37.8%

Passing plays

4.2%

Rushing plays

57.2%

Standard downs

44.1%

Passing downs

22.8%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.09
Passing downs: 0.28
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.26 / 0.12

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2013 · 14 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.