#13Tua Tagovailoa

QB·Alabama·2019 201814.7 pts line value1st Round

Tua Tagovailoa is a 2-year Dual-Threat QB for Alabama. Tua's 2019 season ranks in the 98th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 262 plays — a elite rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Tua Tagovailoa's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2019 Production

Passing

180/252 Comp/Att2840 Pass yards33 Pass TD3 INT71.4% Comp %

Rushing

17 Rush yards2 Rush TD23 Carries0.7 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2019 · vs QB peers

Efficiency98
Volume100
Dual-Threat95
Consistency89
Clutch100

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)98th %ile · elite

Game-to-game consistency89th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸Top-10% efficiency among QBs — elite opponent-adjusted EPA rate.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸8 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.34 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.96 EPA/play in Wk 12 vs Mississippi State (SP+ 4).

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsDuke	W42-3	-1.8	26/31	336	4	0	94.1	15	0	0.88
2	vsNew Mexico State	W62-10	-22.0	16/24	227	3	0	95.8	33	1	0.80
3	@South Carolina	W47-23	4.8	28/36	444	5	0	95.3	-12	0	0.83
4	vsSouthern Miss	W49-7	-4.8	17/21	293	5	0	99.3	8	0	0.88
5	vsOle Miss	W59-31	2.9	26/36	418	6	0	94.5	1	1	0.70
7	@Texas A&M	W47-28	15.0	21/34	293	4	1	85.2	-10	0	0.45
8	vsTennessee	W35-13	10.8	11/12	155	0	1	75.8	-5	0	0.15
11	vsLSU	L41-46	33.1	21/40	418	4	1	—	-5	0	0.47
12	@Mississippi State	W38-7	3.5	14/18	256	2	0	—	-8	0	0.96

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

46.5%

Passing plays

85.1%

Rushing plays

4.7%

Standard downs

42.5%

Passing downs

57.5%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.54
Passing downs: 1.05
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.73 / 0.38

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2018 — 2019 · 22 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2018	Alabama	13.6	0.840	—	298.2
2019	Alabama	14.7	0.920	+0.08	271.4

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.