TJ Harden

RB·SMU·2025

TJ Harden is a Explosive Back for SMU. TJ's 2025 season ranks in the 13th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 185 plays — a developing rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So TJ Harden's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2025 Production

Rushing

787 Rush yards9 Rush TD171 Carries4.6 Yards/carry

Receiving

19 Receptions99 Rec yards1 Rec TD5.2 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs RB peers

Efficiency13
Volume63
Explosiveness32
Consistency64
Receiving40

Player type

Explosive Back

Elite per-carry efficiency — breaks big runs and creates chunk plays at a top rate while in a limited role.

Big-play threatHigh EPA per carryCapitalises on opportunities

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)13th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency64th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs RB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸Peak game: 0.39 EPA/play in Wk 3 vs Missouri State (SP+ -11).

NIL Market Tier· 2025

On3 valuation ↗

Starter

Meaningful starter. Local collective + position-group deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2016	288	0.340	3.9	97.9
Dalvin Cook	Florida State	2016	292	0.340	4.3	99.3
Breece Hall	Iowa State	2020	301	0.340	4.5	102.3

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	vsEast Texas A&M	W42-13	—	8	42	5.3	0	—	—	—	0.29
2	vsBaylor	L45-48	1.4	19	115	6.1	3	2	-7	0	0.35
3	@Missouri State	W28-10	-10.7	15	96	6.4	2	—	—	—	0.39
4	@TCU	L24-35	8.3	15	56	3.7	0	3	31	0	0.13
6	vsSyracuse	W31-18	-13.1	16	67	4.2	0	—	—	—	-0.06
7	vsStanford	W34-10	-11.8	12	39	3.3	0	—	—	—	-0.05
8	@Clemson	W35-24	9.5	11	16	1.5	0	2	10	0	-0.06
9	@Wake Forest	L12-13	5.7	13	25	1.9	0	4	27	0	-0.17
10	vsMiami	W26-20	20.7	8	27	3.4	1	2	15	0	0.21
11	@Boston College	W45-13	-8.5	16	130	8.1	0	1	-3	0	0.31
13	vsLouisville	W38-6	12.4	18	90	5.0	0	2	7	1	0.17
14	@California	L35-38	-3.2	10	44	4.4	1	3	19	0	0.36
20	vsArizona	W24-19	12.0	10	40	4.0	2	—	—	—	—

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

22.0%

Passing plays

4.9%

Rushing plays

43.8%

Standard downs

26.0%

Passing downs

12.9%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.17
Passing downs: 0.14
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.21 / 0.15

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).