#4Tetairoa Mcmillan

WR·Arizona·2024

Tetairoa Mcmillan is a Slot Specialist WR for Arizona. Tetairoa's 2024 season ranks in the 100th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 88 plays — a elite rate for the WR.

What projects, and what doesn't · WRs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.47
Beats guessing the WR average by 16%. n=6,302 WR seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.09
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=5,767 WR seasons
Total EPA (value)0.45
Beats guessing the WR average by 12%. n=5,767 WR seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Tetairoa Mcmillan's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2024 Production

Receiving

84 Receptions1319 Rec yards8 Rec TD15.7 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2024 · vs WR peers

Efficiency100
Volume34
Explosiveness58
Consistency84
Pass-Down100

Player type

Slot Specialist WR

The offense's primary passing-down weapon — routes, separation, and reliability on 3rd down define this role.

3rd-down converterRoute technicianHigh passing-down share

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)100th %ile · elite

Game-to-game consistency84th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸Top-10% efficiency among WRs — elite opponent-adjusted EPA rate.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸11 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.10 from the first to second half of the season.
▸Peak game: 2.24 EPA/play in Wk 1 vs New Mexico (SP+ -15).

NIL Market Tier· 2024

On3 valuation ↗

Elite

Top-3 player at position nationally. Collective + national brand deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Rec	Rec Yds	Avg	Rec TD	Long	EPA/play
1	vsNew Mexico	W61-39	-14.8	10	304	30.4	4	78	2.24
2	vsNorthern Arizona	W22-10	—	2	11	5.5	0	12	-0.11
3	@Kansas State	L7-31	14.1	11	138	12.5	0	38	1.16
5	@Utah	W23-10	7.7	6	50	8.3	0	13	0.57
6	vsTexas Tech	L22-28	4.3	8	161	20.1	0	40	1.38
7	@BYU	L19-41	15.3	5	78	15.6	0	39	1.81
8	vsColorado	L7-34	8.1	5	38	7.6	0	10	0.62
9	vsWest Virginia	L26-31	2.1	10	202	20.2	1	49	1.93
10	@UCF	L12-56	2.8	6	84	14.0	1	30	1.80
12	vsHouston	W27-3	-8.2	6	70	11.7	1	33	1.16
13	@TCU	L28-49	10.8	9	115	12.8	0	32	0.77
14	vsArizona State	L7-49	9.4	6	68	11.3	1	28	1.38

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

12.0%

Passing plays

19.8%

Rushing plays

0.3%

Standard downs

9.6%

Passing downs

16.4%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 1.05
Passing downs: 1.72
Pass / Rush EPA: 1.40 / -0.92

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).