Terry Lockett

WR·Eastern Michigan·2025

Terry Lockett is a Versatile WR for Eastern Michigan. Terry's 2025 season produced 13.9 total EPA across 40 plays.

What projects, and what doesn't · WRs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.47
Beats guessing the WR average by 16%. n=6,302 WR seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.09
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=5,767 WR seasons
Total EPA (value)0.45
Beats guessing the WR average by 12%. n=5,767 WR seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Terry Lockett's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2025 Production

Receiving

19 Receptions263 Rec yards1 Rec TD13.8 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs WR peers

Efficiency100
Volume36
Explosiveness46
Consistency55
Pass-Down35

Player type

Versatile WR

Balanced profile without a single dominant trait — contributes across multiple dimensions.

Balanced usageMulti-role

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)100th %ile · elite

Game-to-game consistency55th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Top-10% efficiency among WRs — elite opponent-adjusted EPA rate.
▸Peak game: 1.07 EPA/play in Wk 1 vs Texas State (SP+ 2).

NIL Market Tier· 2025

On3 valuation ↗

Star

Top-10 nationally. Multiple mid-to-large collective deals expected.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · WR · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Keytaon Thompson	Virginia	2020	39	0.320	0.4	12.5
Cade Harris	Air Force	2024	45	0.330	0.5	14.8
Keytaon Thompson	Virginia	2021	41	0.370	0.6	15.2
Micah Davis	Air Force	2021	44	0.370	0.6	16.3
Nick Nash	San José State	2021	45	0.310	0.5	14.0

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Rec	Rec Yds	Avg	Rec TD	Long	EPA/play
1	@Texas State	L27-52	2.3	5	62	12.4	0	28	1.07
2	vsLong Island University	L23-28	—	8	78	9.8	0	20	0.27
3	@Kentucky	L23-48	1.8	3	90	30.0	1	64	0.32
4	vsLouisiana	W34-31	-10.1	2	29	14.5	0	23	0.34
5	@Central Michigan	L13-24	-8.8	1	4	4.0	0	4	-0.42

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

12.5%

Passing plays

23.1%

Rushing plays

0.0%

Standard downs

12.7%

Passing downs

12.2%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.37
Passing downs: 0.28
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.35 / —

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).