#14Taylor Cornelius

QB·Oklahoma State·20188.4 pts line valueDay 2 (Rds 2–3)

Taylor Cornelius is a Dual-Threat QB for Oklahoma State. Taylor's 2018 season ranks in the 30th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 601 plays — a developing rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Taylor Cornelius's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2018 Production

Passing

286/483 Comp/Att3950 Pass yards32 Pass TD13 INT59.2% Comp %

Rushing

401 Rush yards10 Rush TD122 Carries3.3 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2018 · vs QB peers

Efficiency30
Volume100
Dual-Threat100
Consistency83
Clutch100

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)30th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency83th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs QB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸7 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Peak game: 0.85 EPA/play in Wk 5 vs Kansas (SP+ -10).

Historical Comparables · QB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Jordan Travis	Florida State	2021	690	0.476	10.1	328.3
Sam Hartman	Wake Forest	2021	647	0.556	11.8	359.6
Kyle McCord	Syracuse	2024	632	0.509	12.1	321.4
Trace McSorley	Penn State	2017	626	0.513	12.7	321.0
Casey Thompson	Nebraska	2021	666	0.528	12.6	351.4

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsMissouri State	W58-17	—	24/34	295	5	1	27	0	0.48
2	vsSouth Alabama	W55-13	-17.7	25/40	428	1	2	3	0	0.31
3	vsBoise State	W44-21	12.2	15/26	243	1	0	41	2	0.45
4	vsTexas Tech	L17-41	8.7	18/38	258	1	1	0	0	0.18
5	@Kansas	W48-28	-10.0	15/20	312	4	1	18	0	0.85
6	vsIowa State	L42-48	7.9	19/33	289	4	1	41	1	0.47
7	@Kansas State	L12-31	-0.5	17/35	184	0	2	55	1	-0.01
9	vsTexas	W38-35	11.3	23/34	321	3	0	23	2	0.60
10	@Baylor	L31-35	2.0	23/40	264	1	0	19	1	0.24
11	@Oklahoma	L47-48	24.9	34/53	501	3	0	-5	0	0.44
12	vsWest Virginia	W45-41	13.2	30/46	338	5	2	106	1	0.54
13	@TCU	L24-31	6.9	17/40	181	0	1	52	2	0.26
1	vsMissouri	W38-33	20.8	26/44	336	4	2	21	0	0.18

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

59.4%

Passing plays

98.7%

Rushing plays

18.9%

Standard downs

55.1%

Passing downs

69.0%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.23
Passing downs: 0.61
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.34 / 0.51

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2018 · 13 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.