#6Smoke Harris

WR·Louisiana Tech·2023

Smoke Harris is a Versatile WR for Louisiana Tech. Smoke's 2023 season ranks in the 100th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 93 plays — a elite rate for the WR.

What projects, and what doesn't · WRs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.47
Beats guessing the WR average by 16%. n=6,302 WR seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.09
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=5,767 WR seasons
Total EPA (value)0.45
Beats guessing the WR average by 12%. n=5,767 WR seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Smoke Harris's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2023 Production

Receiving

83 Receptions796 Rec yards4 Rec TD9.6 Yards/rec

Returns

8 Kick returns160 KR yards0 KR TD28 Punt returns234 PR yards1 PR TD

Performance Analysis · 2023 · vs WR peers

Efficiency100
Volume35
Explosiveness17
Consistency72
Pass-Down81

Player type

Versatile WR

Balanced profile without a single dominant trait — contributes across multiple dimensions.

Balanced usageMulti-role

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)100th %ile · elite

Game-to-game consistency72th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Top-10% efficiency among WRs — elite opponent-adjusted EPA rate.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸6 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.14 from the first to second half of the season.
▸Peak game: 1.51 EPA/play in Wk 3 vs North Texas (SP+ -7).

NIL Market Tier· 2023

On3 valuation ↗

Elite

Top-3 player at position nationally. Collective + national brand deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · WR · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Keytaon Thompson	Mississippi State	2017	70	0.460	1.2	32.2
Savion Williams	TCU	2024	56	0.450	1.1	25.2
DeAndre Hughes	Air Force	2021	60	0.470	1.3	28.2
Zach Abey	Navy	2016	70	0.370	0.8	25.9
Javion Posey	Florida Atlantic	2020	53	0.450	1.4	23.8

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Rec	Rec Yds	Avg	Rec TD	Long	EPA/play
0	vsFlorida International	W22-17	-21.2	11	155	14.1	1	64	—
1	@SMU	L14-38	10.1	7	47	6.7	0	22	0.29
2	vsNorthwestern State	W51-21	—	2	9	4.5	0	13	0.21
3	vsNorth Texas	L37-40	-6.7	4	77	19.3	2	36	1.51
4	@Nebraska	L14-28	0.3	10	73	7.3	0	35	0.17
5	@UTEP	W24-10	-16.2	3	7	2.3	0	4	-0.11
6	vsWestern Kentucky	L28-35	-2.0	11	117	10.6	0	35	0.68
7	@Middle Tennessee	L23-31	-9.5	11	129	11.7	0	23	0.72
9	vsNew Mexico State	L24-27	-1.8	3	23	7.7	0	9	0.84
10	@Liberty	L30-56	8.0	5	73	14.6	1	42	0.63
11	vsSam Houston	L27-42	-13.8	7	25	3.6	0	9	-0.16
12	@Jacksonville State	L17-56	-1.6	9	61	6.8	0	17	0.58

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

12.3%

Passing plays

20.4%

Rushing plays

2.8%

Standard downs

11.7%

Passing downs

13.4%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.42
Passing downs: 0.60
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.62 / -0.61

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).