#32Shock Linwood

RB·Baylor·2015 2014 20133.7 pts line valueDay 2 (Rds 2–3)

Shock Linwood is a 3-year Explosive Back for Baylor. Shock's 2014 season ranks in the 28th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 240 plays — a developing rate for the RB. Shock's production has improved each season, a positive development trajectory.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Shock Linwood's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2014 Production

Rushing

1252 Rush yards16 Rush TD251 Carries5.0 Yards/carry

Receiving

7 Receptions90 Rec yards0 Rec TD12.9 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2014 · vs RB peers

Efficiency28
Volume64
Explosiveness40
Consistency68
Receiving14

Player type

Explosive Back

Elite per-carry efficiency — breaks big runs and creates chunk plays at a top rate while in a limited role.

Big-play threatHigh EPA per carryCapitalises on opportunities

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)28th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency68th %ile · average

Career trajectory:↑ Rising

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs RB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸Career trajectory is upward — WEPA value has improved season over season.
▸4 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.14 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.82 EPA/play in Wk 5 vs Iowa State (SP+ -8).

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2016	288	0.340	3.9	97.9
Dalvin Cook	Florida State	2016	292	0.340	4.3	99.3
James Flanders	Tulsa	2016	266	0.390	4.9	103.7
Hassan Haskins	Michigan	2021	280	0.380	4.8	106.4
Royce Freeman	Oregon	2015	275	0.360	5.1	99.0

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	vsSMU	W45-0	-21.2	16	89	5.6	1	—	—	—	0.25
2	vsNorthwestern State	W70-6	—	11	33	3.0	1	2	53	0	0.48
3	@Buffalo	W63-21	-7.7	20	97	4.8	2	1	4	0	0.17
5	@Iowa State	W49-28	-7.9	15	82	5.5	3	—	—	—	0.82
6	@Texas	W28-7	9.0	28	148	5.3	1	—	—	—	0.41
7	vsTCU	W61-58	23.3	29	178	6.1	0	—	—	—	0.02
8	@West Virginia	L27-41	8.4	21	69	3.3	1	—	—	—	-0.16
10	vsKansas	W60-14	-9.8	14	81	5.8	1	—	—	—	0.40
11	@Oklahoma	W48-14	19.2	23	87	3.8	2	—	—	—	0.31
13	vsOklahoma State	W49-28	8.6	21	113	5.4	1	1	4	0	0.19
14	vsTexas Tech	W48-46	4.9	24	158	6.6	2	2	15	0	0.16
15	vsKansas State	W38-27	16.3	18	91	5.1	1	—	—	—	0.46
1	vsMichigan State	L41-42	24.1	11	26	2.4	0	1	14	0	-0.22

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

22.4%

Passing plays

1.7%

Rushing plays

41.6%

Standard downs

25.2%

Passing downs

15.3%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.18
Passing downs: 0.40
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.68 / 0.21

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2013 — 2015 · 37 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2013	Baylor	1.4	0.130	—	14.3
2014	Baylor	3.7	0.310	+0.18	77.2
2015	Baylor	2.4	0.290	-0.02	53.1

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.