#5Shane Carden

QB·East Carolina·2014 20136.7 pts line value1st Round

Shane Carden is a 2-year Dual-Threat QB for East Carolina. Shane's 2013 season ranks in the 93th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 465 plays — a elite rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Shane Carden's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2013 Production

Passing

387/549 Comp/Att4139 Pass yards33 Pass TD10 INT70.5% Comp %

Rushing

103 Rush yards10 Rush TD90 Carries1.1 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2013 · vs QB peers

Efficiency93
Volume100
Dual-Threat74
Consistency88
Clutch100

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)93th %ile · elite

Game-to-game consistency88th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸Top-10% efficiency among QBs — elite opponent-adjusted EPA rate.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸8 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.08 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.87 EPA/play in Wk 1 vs Old Dominion.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsOld Dominion	W52-38	—	46/54	447	5	0	91.9	-4	0	0.87
2	vsFlorida Atlantic	W31-13	-6.6	17/25	191	2	0	53.3	-4	0	0.66
3	vsVirginia Tech	L10-15	14.9	19/31	158	1	3	9.8	10	0	0.43
5	@North Carolina	W55-31	13.7	32/47	376	3	1	87.2	22	3	0.34
6	@Middle Tennessee	W24-17	-11.8	43/57	365	1	0	81.1	2	1	0.41
7	@Tulane	L33-36	-8.0	41/55	480	1	1	61.3	-25	0	0.37
8	vsSouthern Miss	W55-14	-24.5	30/37	308	3	0	91.8	1	1	0.57
10	@Florida International	W34-13	-38.9	23/35	264	3	0	86.4	18	0	0.32
11	vsTulsa	W58-24	-18.7	34/50	384	5	0	84.4	25	2	0.74
12	vsUAB	W63-14	-20.8	21/31	347	5	2	81.1	-2	0	0.65
13	@NC State	W42-28	-0.5	23/30	255	3	0	91.0	6	2	0.46
14	@Marshall	L28-59	8.3	29/52	291	0	3	39.4	14	1	0.21
1	vsOhio	W37-20	-11.4	29/45	273	1	0	60.4	40	0	0.20

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

52.4%

Passing plays

84.7%

Rushing plays

11.8%

Standard downs

48.8%

Passing downs

60.8%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.29
Passing downs: 0.73
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.46 / 0.27

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2013 — 2014 · 26 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2013	East Carolina	6.7	0.360	—	157.3
2014	East Carolina	7.3	0.377	+0.02	265.6

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.