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RJ Garcia II
RJ Garcia II

#6RJ Garcia II

WR·Kansas State·2023

RJ Garcia II is a Slot Specialist WR for Kansas State.

What projects, and what doesn't · WRs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

  • Usage share (volume)0.47
    Beats guessing the WR average by 16%. n=6,302 WR seasons
  • EPA per play (efficiency)0.09
    Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=5,767 WR seasons
  • Total EPA (value)0.45
    Beats guessing the WR average by 12%. n=5,767 WR seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So RJ Garcia II's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2023 Production

Receiving
14 Receptions184 Rec yards1 Rec TD13.1 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2023 · vs WR peers

  • Efficiency100
  • Volume9
  • Explosiveness41
  • Consistency0
  • Pass-Down0
Player type
Slot Specialist WR

The offense's primary passing-down weapon — routes, separation, and reliability on 3rd down define this role.

3rd-down converterRoute technicianHigh passing-down share
Peer percentiles
Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)100th %ile · elite
Game-to-game consistency0th %ile · below avg
Key findings
  • ▸Top-10% efficiency among WRs — elite opponent-adjusted EPA rate.
  • ▸Limited usage share suggests a rotational or specialist role.
  • ▸High game-to-game variance — boom-or-bust profile.
  • ▸3 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
  • ▸Production faded as the season progressed — 1.51 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
  • ▸Peak game: 1.72 EPA/play in Wk 1 vs Southeast Missouri State.

NIL Market Tier· 2023

On3 valuation ↗
Elite

Top-3 player at position nationally. Collective + national brand deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · WR · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

PlayerTeamWEPA/playLine valTotal EPA
Dane KinamonAir Force0.4100.716.0
Keytaon ThompsonVirginia0.3700.615.2
Micah DavisAir Force0.3700.616.3
Savion WilliamsTCU0.4501.125.2
JoJo NatsonUtah State0.3901.019.9

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

+1.720−1.72Wk 1 vs Southeast Missouri State: +1.72 EPA/play1Wk 2 vs Troy: +1.58 EPA/play2Wk 3 vs Missouri: +0.20 EPA/play3Wk 6 vs Oklahoma State: -0.61 EPA/play6Wk 7 vs Texas Tech: +1.20 EPA/play7Wk 9 vs Houston: -1.71 EPA/play9Wk 11 vs Baylor: -0.53 EPA/play11
EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost
WkOpponentResultOpp SP+RecRec YdsAvgRec TDLongEPA/play
1vsSoutheast Missouri StateW45-0—511923.81441.72
2vsTroyW42-139.833110.30111.58
3@MissouriL27-3019.32189.00130.20
6@Oklahoma StateL21-296.7122.002-0.61
7@Texas TechW38-216.1188.0081.20
9vsHoustonW41-0-7.8144.004-1.71
11vsBaylorW59-25-8.3122.002-0.53

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy
Overall
3.2%
Passing plays
7.3%
Rushing plays
0.0%
Standard downs
2.5%
Passing downs
5.1%
EPA by down type
Standard downs
0.70
Passing downs
0.19
Pass / Rush EPA
0.46 / —

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

EPA = expected points added (opponent-adjusted). NIL estimates are model-based ranges, not reported deals. Data: CollegeFootballData. Not betting advice.