#9Quinton Flowers

QB·South Florida·2017 2016 201511.4 pts line valueDay 2 (Rds 2–3)

Quinton Flowers is a 3-year Dual-Threat QB for South Florida. Quinton's 2016 season ranks in the 65th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 456 plays — a average rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Quinton Flowers's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2016 Production

Passing

207/331 Comp/Att2812 Pass yards24 Pass TD7 INT62.5% Comp %

Rushing

1530 Rush yards18 Rush TD198 Carries7.7 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2016 · vs QB peers

Efficiency65
Volume100
Dual-Threat100
Consistency88
Clutch60

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)65th %ile · average

Game-to-game consistency88th %ile · above avg

Career trajectory:→ Stable

Key findings

▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸7 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.21 from the first to second half of the season.
▸Peak game: 0.70 EPA/play in Wk 11 vs Memphis (SP+ 8).

Historical Comparables · QB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Stetson Bennett	Georgia	2022	509	0.635	12.5	323.0
Tanner Mordecai	SMU	2021	510	0.630	14.0	321.5
Ryan Higgins	Louisiana Tech	2016	571	0.586	13.7	334.6
Malik Cunningham	Louisville	2021	502	0.681	14.7	341.6
Kaidon Salter	Liberty	2023	486	0.711	14.7	345.6

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsTowson	W56-20	—	8/18	178	2	1	85.3	46	2	0.55
2	vsNorthern Illinois	W48-17	-2.4	21/33	350	4	0	92.7	53	0	0.57
3	@Syracuse	W45-20	-2.7	12/24	188	1	0	45.8	51	0	0.06
4	vsFlorida State	L35-55	24.0	5/14	160	1	2	32.5	159	0	0.32
5	@Cincinnati	W45-20	-3.6	16/26	196	0	0	85.7	74	2	0.26
6	vsEast Carolina	W38-22	-9.0	21/29	250	3	0	84.1	115	0	0.41
7	vsUConn	W42-27	-11.6	23/37	213	2	2	91.5	157	3	0.32
8	@Temple	L30-46	11.9	11/19	187	2	0	87.7	90	1	0.63
9	vsNavy	W52-45	6.8	19/29	219	2	0	98.6	176	2	0.57
11	@Memphis	W49-42	7.7	24/29	263	2	0	97.7	210	3	0.70
12	@SMU	W35-27	-10.8	7/15	195	3	1	80.8	142	0	0.57
13	vsUCF	W48-31	-2.2	17/26	152	0	0	64.4	152	2	—
1	vsSouth Carolina	W46-39	-4.0	23/32	261	2	1	92.3	105	3	0.37

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

55.9%

Passing plays

91.4%

Rushing plays

33.5%

Standard downs

53.7%

Passing downs

61.2%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.41
Passing downs: 0.51
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.33 / 0.64

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2015 — 2017 · 37 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2015	South Florida	6.1	0.410	—	194.8
2016	South Florida	11.4	0.552	+0.14	270.8
2017	South Florida	8.0	0.430	-0.12	228.1

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.