#16Nic Shimonek

QB·Texas Tech·20179.1 pts line valueDay 2 (Rds 2–3)

Nic Shimonek is a Clutch Passer for Texas Tech. Nic's 2017 season ranks in the 57th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 550 plays — a average rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Nic Shimonek's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2017 Production

Passing

328/493 Comp/Att3963 Pass yards33 Pass TD10 INT66.5% Comp %

Rushing

-66 Rush yards1 Rush TD59 Carries-1.1 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2017 · vs QB peers

Efficiency57
Volume100
Dual-Threat34
Consistency74
Clutch81

Player type

Clutch Passer

Elevates on passing downs — 3rd-and-medium, two-minute drills, and pressure situations are where this QB is best.

3rd-down precisionLate-game valueHigh passing-down EPA

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)57th %ile · average

Game-to-game consistency74th %ile · average

Key findings

▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸4 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.12 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.90 EPA/play in Wk 13 vs Texas (SP+ 11).

Historical Comparables · QB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Kyle McCord	Syracuse	2024	632	0.509	12.1	321.4
Jordan Travis	Florida State	2021	690	0.476	10.1	328.3
Sam Hartman	Wake Forest	2021	647	0.556	11.8	359.6
Stetson Bennett	Georgia	2022	509	0.635	12.5	323.0
Trace McSorley	Penn State	2017	626	0.513	12.7	321.0

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsEastern Washington	W56-10	—	26/30	384	3	0	95.1	-19	0	0.73
3	vsArizona State	W52-45	1.0	37/50	543	6	0	93.8	-24	0	0.71
4	@Houston	W27-24	7.7	29/45	321	2	1	49.0	-9	0	0.35
5	vsOklahoma State	L34-41	19.1	29/46	330	1	1	68.2	3	0	0.12
6	@Kansas	W65-19	-14.8	19/24	233	2	1	61.5	-20	0	0.36
7	@West Virginia	L35-46	5.6	24/39	323	4	1	70.8	1	0	0.35
8	vsIowa State	L13-31	7.5	31/41	207	0	1	48.6	10	1	-0.08
9	@Oklahoma	L27-49	25.5	22/36	322	4	1	75.6	-14	0	0.31
10	vsKansas State	L35-42	10.9	34/53	405	4	1	—	21	0	0.35
11	vsBaylor	W38-24	-1.4	24/29	246	2	0	89.2	-11	0	0.40
12	vsTCU	L3-27	18.9	17/33	137	0	1	12.4	11	0	-0.20
13	@Texas	W27-23	10.6	4/8	96	2	0	95.4	10	0	0.90
1	vsSouth Florida	L34-38	10.2	32/59	416	3	2	49.5	-25	0	0.17

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

54.5%

Passing plays

91.2%

Rushing plays

8.3%

Standard downs

48.4%

Passing downs

68.5%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.22
Passing downs: 0.42
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.31 / 0.07

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2017 · 13 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.