Nate Sheppard is a Featured Back for Duke. Nate's 2026 season ranks in the 93th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 66 plays — a elite rate for the RB. A four-star recruit in the class of 2025, Nate has lived up to his recruiting pedigree.
2026 Usage Outlook · projected share of team plays
Regressed toward the RB mean. Model correlation r≈0.52 on a 2019-2025 walk-forward — volume only; efficiency not projected.
What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025
How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.
- Usage share (volume)0.52Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
- EPA per play (efficiency)0.10Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
- Total EPA (value)0.41Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons
Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Nate Sheppard's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.
Recruiting Profile· Class of 2025
- Stars
- ★★★★★
- 247 composite
- 0.8925
- National rank
- #439
- High school
- Mandeville
- Hometown
- Mandeville, LA
Recruiting data from CFBD/247Sports composite. Sourced from the player's signing-class team — transfers show original school's class.
2026 Production
Performance Analysis · 2026 · vs RB peers
- Efficiency93
- Volume100
- Explosiveness66
- Consistency50
- Receiving62
The centerpiece of the run game — high carry volume, used in early downs and goal-line, true workhorse role.
- ▸Top-10% efficiency among RBs — elite opponent-adjusted EPA rate.
- ▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used RBs by play share.
- ▸Peak game: 0.46 EPA/play in Wk 2 vs Illinois (SP+ 8).
NIL Market Tier· 2026
On3 valuation ↗Top-10 nationally. Multiple mid-to-large collective deals expected.
Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.
Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week
Usage & Situational · Pro
- Standard downs
- 0.32
- Passing downs
- 0.31
- Pass / Rush EPA
- 0.65 / 0.27
Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).
Career · rolling EPA, game by game
Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.