#2Mike Bercovici

QB·Arizona State·20157.4 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Mike Bercovici is a Clutch Passer for Arizona State. Mike's 2015 season ranks in the 8th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 608 plays — a developing rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Mike Bercovici's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2015 Production

Passing

319/532 Comp/Att3860 Pass yards30 Pass TD9 INT60.0% Comp %

Rushing

84 Rush yards6 Rush TD109 Carries0.8 Yards/carry

Punting

3 Punts107 Punt yards35.7 Yards/punt38 Long0 Inside 20

Performance Analysis · 2015 · vs QB peers

Efficiency8
Volume100
Dual-Threat36
Consistency75
Clutch95

Player type

Clutch Passer

Elevates on passing downs — 3rd-and-medium, two-minute drills, and pressure situations are where this QB is best.

3rd-down precisionLate-game valueHigh passing-down EPA

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)8th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency75th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs QB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸3 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Peak game: 0.57 EPA/play in Wk 6 vs Colorado (SP+ -4).

Historical Comparables · QB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Jordan Travis	Florida State	2021	690	0.476	10.1	328.3
Kyle McCord	Syracuse	2024	632	0.509	12.1	321.4
Sam Hartman	Wake Forest	2021	647	0.556	11.8	359.6
Trace McSorley	Penn State	2017	626	0.513	12.7	321.0
Casey Thompson	Nebraska	2021	666	0.528	12.6	351.4

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsTexas A&M	L17-38	14.1	25/41	199	1	0	33.3	0	1	-0.03
2	vsCal Poly	W35-21	—	23/35	283	3	1	84.7	-10	0	0.37
3	vsNew Mexico	W34-10	-8.7	22/37	317	3	0	77.1	15	1	0.49
4	vsUSC	L14-42	16.8	23/44	272	0	1	13.3	-20	0	0.07
5	@UCLA	W38-23	18.6	27/44	273	2	1	66.7	37	1	0.30
6	vsColorado	W48-23	-4.0	20/31	260	5	1	88.7	40	0	0.57
7	@Utah	L18-34	11.0	20/41	242	0	1	23.4	-37	0	0.02
9	vsOregon	L55-61	15.9	32/53	398	5	2	72.0	58	1	0.19
10	@Washington State	L24-38	4.2	28/45	235	0	1	44.3	-2	1	-0.08
11	vsWashington	W27-17	9.7	22/34	253	1	0	35.4	-10	0	0.16
12	vsArizona	W52-37	4.7	21/32	315	2	1	75.0	3	1	0.35
13	@California	L46-48	12.1	27/43	395	4	0	81.2	0	0	0.55
1	vsWest Virginia	L42-43	12.9	29/52	418	4	0	65.1	10	0	0.35

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

58.2%

Passing plays

98.9%

Rushing plays

15.5%

Standard downs

51.1%

Passing downs

73.0%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.14
Passing downs: 0.41
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.27 / 0.08

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2015 · 13 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.