#6Micah Davis

WR·Southern Miss·2025 2021

Micah Davis is a Slot Specialist WR for Southern Miss. Micah's 2025 season ranks in the 100th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 51 plays — a elite rate for the WR.

What projects, and what doesn't · WRs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.47
Beats guessing the WR average by 16%. n=6,302 WR seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.09
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=5,767 WR seasons
Total EPA (value)0.45
Beats guessing the WR average by 12%. n=5,767 WR seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Micah Davis's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2025 Production

Receiving

31 Receptions429 Rec yards5 Rec TD13.8 Yards/rec

Returns

13 Kick returns271 KR yards0 KR TD6 Punt returns64 PR yards0 PR TD

Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs WR peers

Efficiency100
Volume16
Explosiveness46
Consistency52
Pass-Down97

Player type

Slot Specialist WR

The offense's primary passing-down weapon — routes, separation, and reliability on 3rd down define this role.

3rd-down converterRoute technicianHigh passing-down share

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)100th %ile · elite

Game-to-game consistency52th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Top-10% efficiency among WRs — elite opponent-adjusted EPA rate.
▸Limited usage share suggests a rotational or specialist role.
▸6 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.13 from the first to second half of the season.
▸Peak game: 1.41 EPA/play in Wk 8 vs Louisiana (SP+ -10).

NIL Market Tier· 2025

On3 valuation ↗

Star

Top-10 nationally. Multiple mid-to-large collective deals expected.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · WR · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Tyler Buchner	Notre Dame	2021	51	0.250	0.3	12.8
Samajie Grant	Arizona	2016	62	0.250	0.3	15.5
Justin Lynch	Temple	2021	63	0.240	0.3	15.1
Brandon Chatman	Navy	2025	52	0.230	0.6	12.0
Xavier White	Texas Tech	2020	62	0.300	0.5	18.6

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Rec	Rec Yds	Avg	Rec TD	Long	EPA/play
1	vsMississippi State	L17-34	4.1	2	6	3.0	1	3	0.49
2	vsJackson State	W38-20	—	3	38	12.7	1	15	0.90
3	vsApp State	W38-22	-11.4	3	30	10.0	1	21	0.72
4	@Louisiana Tech	L20-30	-1.3	3	28	9.3	0	20	0.06
5	vsJacksonville State	W42-25	-6.7	2	34	17.0	0	30	0.48
7	@Georgia Southern	W38-35	-9.4	2	15	7.5	0	14	-0.56
8	@Louisiana	W22-10	-10.1	3	134	44.7	1	98	1.41
9	vsUL Monroe	W49-21	-21.6	1	1	1.0	0	1	-0.63
11	@Arkansas State	W27-21	-8.8	5	44	8.8	0	12	0.32
12	vsTexas State	L14-41	2.3	2	4	2.0	0	6	-0.11
13	@South Alabama	L35-42	-12.7	2	59	29.5	1	30	1.39
20	vsWestern Kentucky	L16-27	1.6	3	36	12.0	0	20	—

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

5.7%

Passing plays

10.9%

Rushing plays

0.5%

Standard downs

4.4%

Passing downs

8.3%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.12
Passing downs: 0.40
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.27 / -0.15

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2021 · 7 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.