#85Matt Lauter

TE·Boise State·2025

Matt Lauter is a Versatile TE for Boise State. Matt's 2025 season ranks in the 100th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 52 plays — a elite rate for the TE.

What projects, and what doesn't · TEs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.42
Beats guessing the TE average by 9%. n=2,225 TE seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.04
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=2,016 TE seasons
Total EPA (value)0.46
Beats guessing the TE average by 13%. n=2,016 TE seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Matt Lauter's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2025 Production

Receiving

37 Receptions330 Rec yards2 Rec TD8.9 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs TE peers

Efficiency100
Volume17
Explosiveness13
Consistency31
Pass-Down89

Player type

Versatile TE

Balanced profile without a single dominant trait — contributes across multiple dimensions.

Balanced usageMulti-role

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)100th %ile · elite

Game-to-game consistency31th %ile · below avg

Key findings

▸Top-10% efficiency among TEs — elite opponent-adjusted EPA rate.
▸Limited usage share suggests a rotational or specialist role.
▸High game-to-game variance — boom-or-bust profile.
▸4 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.39 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 1.94 EPA/play in Wk 4 vs Air Force (SP+ -3).

NIL Market Tier· 2025

On3 valuation ↗

Starter

Meaningful starter. Local collective + position-group deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · TE · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
D'Vaughn Pennamon	Ole Miss	2017	55	0.200	0.0	11.0
Jackson Acker	Wisconsin	2023	73	0.210	0.1	15.3
Kaden Feagin	Illinois	2024	52	0.150	0.0	7.8
Johnny Langan	Rutgers	2021	37	0.240	0.0	8.9
Jordan Myers	Rice	2021	59	0.270	0.2	15.9

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Rec	Rec Yds	Avg	Rec TD	Long	EPA/play
1	@South Florida	L7-34	11.6	4	35	8.8	0	20	0.07
2	vsEastern Washington	W51-14	—	4	45	11.3	0	17	0.69
4	@Air Force	W49-37	-3.2	2	23	11.5	1	20	1.94
5	vsApp State	W47-14	-11.4	3	45	15.0	0	20	0.66
7	vsNew Mexico	W41-25	0.9	4	31	7.8	0	17	-0.21
8	vsUNLV	W56-31	4.3	1	6	6.0	0	6	-0.39
9	@Nevada	W24-3	-13.4	2	17	8.5	0	12	0.26
10	vsFresno State	L7-30	1.8	4	30	7.5	0	11	0.13
13	vsColorado State	W49-21	-15.6	4	38	9.5	0	20	0.47
14	@Utah State	W25-24	-3.1	2	16	8.0	0	9	0.09
15	vsUNLV	W38-21	4.3	2	7	3.5	0	5	-0.59
20	vsWashington	L10-38	18.4	5	37	7.4	1	14	—

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

6.1%

Passing plays

13.0%

Rushing plays

0.0%

Standard downs

5.7%

Passing downs

6.9%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.11
Passing downs: 0.35
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.20 / —

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).