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Marcus Brown
Marcus Brown

#3Marcus Brown

WR·Stanford·2025

Marcus Brown is a Slot Specialist WR for Stanford.

What projects, and what doesn't · WRs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

  • Usage share (volume)0.47
    Beats guessing the WR average by 16%. n=6,302 WR seasons
  • EPA per play (efficiency)0.09
    Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=5,767 WR seasons
  • Total EPA (value)0.45
    Beats guessing the WR average by 12%. n=5,767 WR seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Marcus Brown's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2025 Production

Receiving
12 Receptions86 Rec yards1 Rec TD7.2 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs WR peers

  • Efficiency100
  • Volume11
  • Explosiveness1
  • Consistency60
  • Pass-Down6
Player type
Slot Specialist WR

The offense's primary passing-down weapon — routes, separation, and reliability on 3rd down define this role.

3rd-down converterRoute technicianHigh passing-down share
Peer percentiles
Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)100th %ile · elite
Game-to-game consistency60th %ile · average
Key findings
  • ▸Top-10% efficiency among WRs — elite opponent-adjusted EPA rate.
  • ▸Limited usage share suggests a rotational or specialist role.
  • ▸3 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
  • ▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.78 from the first to second half of the season.
  • ▸Peak game: 2.13 EPA/play in Wk 11 vs North Carolina (SP+ -7).

NIL Market Tier· 2025

On3 valuation ↗
Elite

Top-3 player at position nationally. Collective + national brand deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · WR · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

PlayerTeamWEPA/playLine valTotal EPA
Dane KinamonAir Force0.4100.716.0
Keytaon ThompsonVirginia0.3700.615.2
Savion WilliamsTCU0.4501.125.2
Micah DavisAir Force0.3700.616.3
JoJo NatsonUtah State0.3901.019.9

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

+2.130−2.13Wk 2 vs BYU: +0.43 EPA/play2Wk 8 vs Florida State: -0.16 EPA/play8Wk 10 vs Pittsburgh: +0.06 EPA/play10Wk 11 vs North Carolina: +2.13 EPA/play11Wk 14 vs Notre Dame: +0.56 EPA/play14
EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost
WkOpponentResultOpp SP+RecRec YdsAvgRec TDLongEPA/play
0@Hawai'iL20-231.7155.005—
2@BYUL3-2715.9221.0030.43
8vsFlorida StateW20-137.2188.008-0.16
10vsPittsburghL20-358.422311.50210.06
11@North CarolinaL15-20-6.6177.0072.13
14vsNotre DameL20-4924.45418.21130.56

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy
Overall
4.0%
Passing plays
7.7%
Rushing plays
0.0%
Standard downs
1.3%
Passing downs
9.5%
EPA by down type
Standard downs
0.67
Passing downs
0.40
Pass / Rush EPA
0.47 / —

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

EPA = expected points added (opponent-adjusted). NIL estimates are model-based ranges, not reported deals. Data: CollegeFootballData. Not betting advice.