#4Malik Hornsby

WR·Texas State·2023

Malik Hornsby is a Versatile WR for Texas State. Malik's 2023 season produced 11.5 total EPA across 37 plays.

What projects, and what doesn't · WRs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.47
Beats guessing the WR average by 16%. n=6,302 WR seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.09
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=5,767 WR seasons
Total EPA (value)0.45
Beats guessing the WR average by 12%. n=5,767 WR seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Malik Hornsby's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2023 Production

Passing

8/15 Comp/Att83 Pass yards0 Pass TD1 INT53.3% Comp %

Rushing

229 Rush yards6 Rush TD35 Carries6.5 Yards/carry

Receiving

1 Receptions2 Rec yards0 Rec TD2.0 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2023 · vs WR peers

Efficiency80
Volume27
Explosiveness0
Consistency68
Pass-Down0

Player type

Versatile WR

Balanced profile without a single dominant trait — contributes across multiple dimensions.

Balanced usageMulti-role

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)80th %ile · above avg

Game-to-game consistency68th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Above-average efficiency for the WR position (80th percentile).
▸Limited usage share suggests a rotational or specialist role.
▸4 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 1.07 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 1.45 EPA/play in Wk 5 vs Southern Miss (SP+ -14).

NIL Market Tier· 2023

On3 valuation ↗

Star

Top-10 nationally. Multiple mid-to-large collective deals expected.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · WR · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Keytaon Thompson	Virginia	2020	39	0.320	0.4	12.5
Nick Nash	San José State	2021	45	0.310	0.5	14.0
Cade Harris	Air Force	2024	45	0.330	0.5	14.8
Ainias Smith	Texas A&M	2020	55	0.310	0.5	17.0
Xavier White	Texas Tech	2020	62	0.300	0.5	18.6

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Rec	Rec Yds	Avg	Rec TD	Long	EPA/play
3	vsJackson State	W77-34	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.14
4	vsNevada	W35-24	-22.0	—	—	—	—	—	1.28
5	@Southern Miss	W50-36	-14.4	—	—	—	—	—	1.45
6	@Louisiana	L30-34	0.4	—	—	—	—	—	-0.18
7	vsUL Monroe	W21-20	-21.6	—	—	—	—	—	-0.30
9	vsTroy	L13-31	9.8	1	2	2.0	0	2	0.86
11	@Coastal Carolina	L23-31	-1.2	—	—	—	—	—	0.12

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

9.6%

Passing plays

6.6%

Rushing plays

12.1%

Standard downs

8.7%

Passing downs

11.8%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.43
Passing downs: 0.12
Pass / Rush EPA: -0.13 / 0.52

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).