#33Leon Allen

RB·Western Kentucky·20143.2 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Leon Allen is a Featured Back for Western Kentucky. Leon's 2014 season ranks in the 10th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 323 plays — a developing rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Leon Allen's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2014 Production

Rushing

1542 Rush yards13 Rush TD272 Carries5.7 Yards/carry

Receiving

51 Receptions476 Rec yards3 Rec TD9.3 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2014 · vs RB peers

Efficiency10
Volume95
Explosiveness54
Consistency70
Receiving55

Player type

Featured Back

The centerpiece of the run game — high carry volume, used in early downs and goal-line, true workhorse role.

Primary ball carrierHigh volumeGoal-line threat

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)10th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency70th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs RB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used RBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸3 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.14 from the first to second half of the season.
▸Peak game: 0.68 EPA/play in Wk 12 vs Army (SP+ -17).

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Donnel Pumphrey	San Diego State	2016	344	0.320	4.2	110.1
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2016	288	0.340	3.9	97.9
Eno Benjamin	Arizona State	2018	316	0.330	4.6	104.3
Dalvin Cook	Florida State	2016	292	0.340	4.3	99.3
Breece Hall	Iowa State	2020	301	0.340	4.5	102.3

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	vsBowling Green	W59-31	-5.4	27	99	3.7	1	6	53	0	0.18
2	@Illinois	L34-42	0.4	24	118	4.9	1	6	56	0	0.19
3	@Middle Tennessee	L47-50	-8.7	30	128	4.3	1	4	8	0	-0.12
5	@Navy	W36-27	3.4	17	102	6.0	0	6	58	0	0.26
6	vsUAB	L39-42	-4.2	9	29	3.2	0	1	9	0	-0.10
8	@Florida Atlantic	L38-45	-10.4	12	58	4.8	2	1	-1	0	0.56
9	vsOld Dominion	W66-51	-12.7	32	182	5.7	2	2	31	0	0.36
10	@Louisiana Tech	L10-59	-1.7	14	76	5.4	0	2	1	0	-0.17
11	vsUTEP	W35-27	-12.0	14	48	3.4	1	8	88	1	0.26
12	vsArmy	W52-24	-16.9	33	345	10.5	3	2	12	0	0.68
13	vsUTSA	W45-7	-3.4	14	68	4.9	0	3	65	1	0.31
14	@Marshall	W67-66	16.8	33	237	7.2	1	5	51	1	0.33
1	vsCentral Michigan	W49-48	-5.2	13	52	4.0	1	5	45	0	0.41

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

33.1%

Passing plays

10.0%

Rushing plays

65.9%

Standard downs

39.3%

Passing downs

17.9%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.20
Passing downs: 0.64
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.52 / 0.22

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2014 · 13 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.