#14Khalil Tate

QB·Arizona·201710.2 pts line valueDay 2 (Rds 2–3)

Khalil Tate is a Dual-Threat QB for Arizona. Khalil's 2017 season ranks in the 90th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 324 plays — a elite rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Khalil Tate's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2017 Production

Passing

111/179 Comp/Att1591 Pass yards14 Pass TD9 INT62.0% Comp %

Rushing

1411 Rush yards12 Rush TD153 Carries9.2 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2017 · vs QB peers

Efficiency90
Volume100
Dual-Threat100
Consistency78
Clutch98

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)90th %ile · elite

Game-to-game consistency78th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸Top-10% efficiency among QBs — elite opponent-adjusted EPA rate.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸8 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.32 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 1.32 EPA/play in Wk 6 vs Colorado (SP+ 2).

Historical Comparables · QB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Stetson Bennett	Georgia	2022	509	0.635	12.5	323.0

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsNorthern Arizona	W62-24	—	0/1	0	0	0	98.0	62	0	0.46
2	vsHouston	L16-19	7.7	5/8	41	0	1	46.7	24	0	0.11
6	@Colorado	W45-42	2.0	12/13	154	1	0	100.0	327	4	1.32
7	vsUCLA	W47-30	4.9	9/13	148	1	0	98.7	230	2	0.90
8	@California	W45-44	-1.0	10/15	166	2	1	93.5	137	1	0.49
9	vsWashington State	W58-37	8.6	10/17	275	2	1	91.8	146	1	0.71
10	@USC	L35-49	17.9	14/31	146	2	2	—	161	1	0.05
11	vsOregon State	W49-28	-12.6	5/7	68	0	1	99.0	206	2	0.70
12	@Oregon	L28-48	9.1	18/35	159	1	2	35.4	32	0	-0.00
13	@Arizona State	L30-42	1.0	11/13	132	0	0	94.3	28	1	0.52
1	vsPurdue	L35-38	5.8	17/26	302	5	1	63.8	58	0	0.41

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

44.3%

Passing plays

78.1%

Rushing plays

28.9%

Standard downs

37.6%

Passing downs

61.5%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.34
Passing downs: 0.63
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.40 / 0.53

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2017 · 11 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.